Wednesday Night Rivalry is back, and we have an Atlantic Division showdown. The Tampa Bay Lightning venture up to Boston to take on the Bruins. Let’s take a look at our NHL daily predictions.
Lightning vs Bruins
ML: OFF / OFF
O/U: OFF
This is the final game of a four-game road trip for the Bolts that has sent them all over the northeast. They dropped the first two games on consecutive nights in one of the toughest back-to-backs possible- in Washington against the Capitals and in Pittsburgh against the Penguins.
Even though the Lightning have one of the most potent offenses in the National Hockey League, they found themselves outplayed by last year’s best two Metro Division teams. The Capitals outshot the Bolts 38-26 en route to a 3-1 victory. Jay Beagle of all people had a multi-point night capped off by an empty net goal to seal the deal. The following night, the Penguins scored five times on 34 shots against Peter Budaj to win 5-2. Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel both netted a pair of goals.
The road trip now concludes with another back-to-back after the Lightning were in Buffalo last night.
Even though this road trip may be a lull in the season for Tampa, they still sit comfortably atop the Atlantic Division. The Bolts have 34 points, leading Toronto by three and the third-place Detroit Red Wings by nine.
Predictably, the Atlantic Division is very much so a collection of haves and have-nots, and Tampa Bay runs the show.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been great in the starting role this season. Clear Sight Analytics has determined the young Russian ranks second in the NHL in terms of high-danger chances faced and stopped behind only John Gibson.
On the offensive side of the puck, Steven Stamkos has the second best conversion rate of high-danger scoring chances behind only Anders Lee. Joining him at the top of the leaderboard is John Tavares, Sean Couturier and Connor McDavid.
Sneak Peek at Top 5 NHL Finishers. Based on Conversion Rate for Goals directly from High Quality Scoring Chances (Min. 15 Chances).
1. @NYIslanders Lee
2. @TBLightning Stamkos
3. @NYIslanders Tavares
4. @NHLFlyers Couturier
5. @EdmontonOilers Mcdavid #FinisherStat #NHL— Clear Sight Analytics Hockey in Clear Sight (@csahockey) November 25, 2017
Plus, the Bolts have the best powerplay in the National Hockey League at 26.7% and a decent enough penalty kill at 81.3% to keep them rolling.
The Lightning have it going on, is the point I mean to convey.
The Boston Bruins are wrapping up a three-game home stand, trying to come out with a winning record. Anton Khudobin stopped 17 shots and beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 on Friday night. Khudobin improved to 7-0-2 on the year.
Tuukka Rask has been feeling the heat lately. He’s the Bruins’ guy through and through, yes, but the narrative-makers love to speculate just how long a goaltender can struggle before a true goaltender controversy erupts.
So Rask, pressure on his shoulders, took the ice on Sunday against the Edmonton Oilers with a chance to get back on track.
Oilers win, 4-2. Rask allows three on 35 shots and is now 3-8-2 on the year. His goals-against average rose to 2.91. At least his save percentage improved to .899.
Well, look. You’re never as good as you look and never as bad as you look. Tuukka Rask is off to a stutter-step start, which is perfectly normal for goalies with half an AHL roster in front of them. With his body of work, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Rask’s October and November last season were as good as any two months in his career. This year’s start has been bad, but honestly could be worse.
This is a lukewarm take, I know. How dare I stick up for a stud goaltender going through a rough patch and beg for a backup with a career .913 save percentage this year. It’s not like I’ve seen this exact kind of thing in the New York market where people declare their star goaltender dead and are now eating their words now that he’s back to form.
At least Boston media is handling this with the same kind of level-headedness and-
In this humble hockey writer's opinion, the Bruins aren't ever going to win a Stanley Cup w/Tuukka Rask. So they might as well start looking for the next guy https://t.co/OMGbLc9Xcb
— Joe Haggerty (@HackswithHaggs) November 22, 2017
…oh.
Pack it in, boys. Don’t blame Peter Chiarelli’s short-sightedness and stupid trades when he was GM of the Bruins, don’t blame lady luck for taking Brad Marchand, David Krecji, Adam McQuaid, David Backes and Ryan Spooner out of the lineup for extended periods of time. Pay no mind to the fact that the Bruins were only a minute away from forcing a Game 7 with Tuukka Rask in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2013 proving that the team can go far with him in net.
Sucks. Trade ’em. Burn it down. Sell low.
Rask is 13-6-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in his career. The Bruins have won five of their last six against the Bolts. Head coach Bruce Cassidy has given Rask his full vote of confidence as the team’s number one goaltender.
Can he get back on track?
Catching the Lightning on a back-to-back when the Bruins have had two days of rest to rebound from their last loss is a break. Boston is 5-1 in their last six games when playing on two days of rest.
That said, the Lightning are 8-3 on the back end of consecutive games. And they were playing the Buffalo Sabres last night. Is that really so strenuous?
The tricky play tonight is the over/under. On the one hand, betting against the Lightning offense is risky in of itself. Then again, the Bruins have had the under hit 10 of their last 11 times against teams with a wining percentage of .600 or higher. They play tight against good teams.
Back-to-backs don’t usually handcuff the Bolts’ scoring either, as the over has hit in each of the last six games on no rest. To top it all off, they love the Wednesday limelight, as the over is 7-1 in the Lightning’s last eight Wednesday night games.
It’s one of the best offenses in the league shooting on a struggling goaltender. This is a great opportunity for Tampa Bay.
The lone chance the Bruins have is to capitalize on fresh legs. They have had days of rest, the Bolts have had to travel overnight. Come out firing and the Bruins may have a shot.
I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
Prediction: Take the Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Play the over.
