The Denver Broncos (+7) are heading west to battle the Los Angeles Chargers at StubHub Center. CBS is scheduled to have the TV rights and this AFC West showdown kicks off at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC matchup, Los Angeles has been tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Broncos are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Chargers are -280. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it will probably produce a nice betting scenario in-game.
The Broncos are 3-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.3 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6. The surprising Chargers have gained 4.4 units this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.
The Broncos have gone only 3-6 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chargers are 7-2 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.
Los Angeles enters this one on a two-game losing streak while Denver has come out on top in its last six in a row. The Broncos are most-recently reeling from a thin 19-17 defeat to Houston on November 4. Case Keenum completed 26 passes for 290 yards and one touchdown. Phillip Lindsay (60 yards on 17 rushes) led the ground attack while Jeff Heuerman (10 receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (six catches, 47 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Los Angeles just earned a 20-6 win over Oakland last week. The team’s defense allowed the Raiders to rush for 114 yards on 22 attempts. Doug Martin had a good outing in the defeat for Oakland, accounting for 61 rushing yards on 15 attempts, along with 31 yards and a score on three catches. For Los Angeles, Philip Rivers completed 18-of-26 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Melvin Gordon III (93 rushing yards on 18 attempts) mounted the running game while Keenan Allen (six receptions, 57 yards, one TD) and Gordon III (five catches, 72 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Denver has run the ball on 40.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Los Angeles has a rush percentage of 45.3 percent. The Broncos have run for 127 yards per game (including 172 per game versus West opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Bolts are logging 127 rush yards per game (105 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.
The Broncos offense has logged 270 yards per contest in the air overall (243 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Bolts have put up 274 pass yards per outing (328.7 against AFC competition) and have 21 total pass scores.
Defensively, Denver has allowed 132 rush yards and 253 pass yards per game. The Los Angeles D has given up 263.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 112.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Broncos have given up an ANY/A of 6.31 to opposing QBs, while the Bolts are allowing an ANY/A of 5.91.
Passing-wise, Keenum is up to 2,138 yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 187-of-296 attempts with nine scores through the air and nine interceptions. He’s got a 5.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.14 over the last two outings.
The Broncos will probably try to maintain tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Courtland Sutton (303 yards, two TDs), Phillip Lindsay (496 rush yards, two rush TDs, 143 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Devontae Booker (66 rush yards, one rush TD, 135 receiving yards) have been big focal points in the offensive gameplans for Denver.
Philip Rivers has completed 170-of-246 passes for 2,231 yards, 19 TDs and four INTs for Los Angeles. His ANY/A sits at 9.25 for the year and 8.58 across his last two outings.
The Bolts should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Melvin Gordon III (351 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Keenan Allen (46 rush yards, 563 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Tyrell Williams (15 rush yards, 474 receiving yards, four TDs) have gotten quite a few touches recently.
RELATED: Week 11 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Prediction: Broncos vs. Chargers
SU Winner – Chargers, ATS Winner – Broncos, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Denver D has 28 sacks on the year while Los Angeles has 26.
Los Angeles has lost three fumbles in 2018 while the Denver offense has lost two.
The Broncos offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chargers have put up nine such plays.
Both teams have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Denver defense has given up 11 pass plays of 30+ yards while Los Angeles has yielded 13 such plays.
The Denver offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Los Angeles has created 12 such runs.
The Broncos defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Chargers have given up five such runs.
The Over/Under for Los Angeles’ previous matchup was set at 50.5. The under cashed in the 20-6 win over Oakland.
Over its last three matches, Los Angeles is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matches, Denver is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Denver has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 35-point win over Arizona on October 18th representing the only victory over that span.
The O/U for Denver’s previous game was set at 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 19-17 loss to Houston.
As a team, Denver has produced 4.9 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.3 over its last two.
Los Angeles has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.7 over its last two.
+++++
