The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts are set to face off on the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium. Interested parties are able to catch the action live on CBS and this vital late afternoon matchup kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Miami is a significant road underdog in this AFC game and is currently being given 10 points. The Dolphins are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Colts are -475. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 51 points, and should one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it will likely produce a solid in-game betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Colts. This line originally opened at -8 and the over/under was initially 51.5.
The Dolphins have gained 1.6 units so far and are 5-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-5. The Colts have gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-4.
The Dolphins have gone 5-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Colts are also 5-5 SU.
The Dolphins hope to bounce back after a 31-12 loss to Green Bay on November 11 where Brock Osweiler completed 23 passes for 213 yards and one interception. Frank Gore (90 rushing yards on 13 attempts) provided the ground attack while Danny Amendola (seven receptions, 72 yards) and DeVante Parker (five catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Indianapolis is coming off of a 38-10 win over Tennessee in Week 11. The defense held its territory in the victory, limiting the Titans to just 203 passing yards and 87 rushing yards. Derrick Henry had a good outing in the loss, recording 46 rushing yards on nine attempts for Tennessee. For Indianapolis, Andrew Luck completed 23-of-29 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Marlon Mack (61 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) mounted the running game as T.Y. Hilton (nine receptions, 155 yards, two TDs) and Jack Doyle (four catches, 43 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Miami’s run the ball on 43.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 38.4 percent. The Dolphins have run for 106 yards/game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Colts are averaging 112 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then the Colts ought to have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has yielded just 10 sacks while their D-line has registered 26 sacks. The Dolphins offensive line has given up 27 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 17 times.
The Dolphins offense has averaged 230 yards through the air overall and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Colts have recorded 277 pass yards per outing and have 29 total pass scores.
Miami has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 142 yards and pass for 262 yards per game. The Indianapolis defense has given up 273.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Dolphins have given up an ANY/A of 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Colts are yielding an ANY/A of 6.36.
Passing-wise, Osweiler is up to 1,108 yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 98-of-154 attempts with six scores through the air and four interceptions. He’s got a 5.78 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.13 over the last two outings.
On the other sideline, Andrew Luck has connected on 248-of-371 passes for 2,484 yards, 26 TDs and eight INTs. Luck’s ANY/A stands at 6.74 for the season and 11.33 over his last two games.
RELATED: Week 12 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
NFL Prediction: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
SU Winner – Colts, ATS Winner – Colts, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Dolphins offense has produced six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Colts have accounted for four such plays.
The Miami defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Indianapolis has given up one such play.
The Miami offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Indianapolis has created six such runs.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Colts have given up eight such runs.
The Indianapolis defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season. Miami has recorded just 17 sacks.
Miami has averaged 4.1 yards per rush attempt across its past three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
Indianapolis has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
Over its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Miami’s last game going into it was 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-12 loss to Green Bay.
Over its last three games, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ last matchup was set at 50. The under cashed in the team’s 38-10 win over Tennessee.
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