The New England Patriots (-8) are set to face off against their AFC East counterpart Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. CBS is scheduled to broadcast the action and this critical early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC game, New England is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Patriots are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are +260. If one team can find paydirt in the early stages it’ll create a worthy live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.
Sharp bettors have been leaning toward both the Dolphins and the under. This line originally opened at 9 and the over/under was initially 48.
Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Patriots have gained 2.4 units and the Dolphins are up 1.6 units.
The Patriots are 9-3 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 6-6 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Patriots are looking to keep things going after a solid 24-10 win over Minnesota in Week 13. Tom Brady completed 24-of-32 passes for 311 yards, along with a score and a pick. Sony Michel (63 yards on 17 rush attempts) led the ground attack while James White (seven receptions, 92 yards) and Julian Edelman (three catches, 25 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Miami just earned a 21-17 win over Buffalo in Week 13. The defense allowed the Bills to rush for 198 yards on 31 attempts. Josh Allen was a bright spot in the loss, posting 135 rushing yards on nine attempts for Buffalo. For Miami, Ryan Tannehill completed 16-of-24 passes for 137 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Frank Gore (21 yards on eight rush attempts) handled the running game while Kenny Stills (four receptions, 37 yards, one TD) and DeVante Parker (four catches, 43 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each team has a strikingly similar (45-55) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Patriots have rushed for 122 yards per game (including 155 per game versus East opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dolphins haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re logging 103 rush yards per game (79 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Patriots should have an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has allowed only 35 sacks while the D-line logged 42 sacks. The Dolphins O-line has allowed 33 sacks and their defense has created only 30 sacks.
The Pats offense has averaged 283 yards through the air overall (294 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Dolphins have produced 220 pass yards per outing (144.8 in the AFC) and have 21 total pass TDs.
New England has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 107 yards and pass for 275 yards per game. The Miami defense has allowed 266.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 144.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 5.94 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins are yielding an ANY/A of 6.43.
Offensively, Brady has put up 3,059 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 266-of-403 attempts with 18 scores through the air and eight interceptions. Brady’s got a 7.04 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.67 over the last two outings.
Ryan Tannehill has completed 101-of-153 passes for 1,109 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs for Miami. His ANY/A stands at 5.62 for the season and 7.00 across his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 14 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Patriots at Dolphins
SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Dolphins, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Miami defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. New England has registered 19 sacks.
The Miami offense has lost seven fumbles this season while the New England offense has lost six.
Each team has produced seven pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Patriots have have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Dolphins have created 13 such plays.
The New England defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Miami has given up nine such plays.
The New England offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Miami has created nine such runs.
The Patriots defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Dolphins have given up 16 such runs.
The O/U for Miami’s last matchup going into it was 40. The under cashed in the team’s 21-17 triumph over Buffalo.
Over its last three matches, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three contests, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
New England has won nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 24-point loss to Tennessee on November 11th representing the only slip-up over that stretch.
The O/U for New England’s previous game was set at 50.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 victory over Minnesota.
As a team, New England has averaged 4.4 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 5.0 over its last two.
Miami has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its last two.
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