A couple of franchises that like to air it out, the Atlanta Falcons (+6) are gearing up to pay a visit to the Green Bay Packers (-6) at Lambeau Field. The opening kickoff for this game is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX has the TV rights.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Atlanta is the road underdog in this NFC game and is currently getting 6 points. The Falcons are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Packers are -220. There should be some decent live betting opportunities during this matchup, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47.5 points.
The Falcons are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) and are down 7.2 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-6. The disappointing Packers have lost 11.1 units in 2018. The team is 4-7-1 ATS and also has an even O/U record of 6-6.
The Falcons are 4-8 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Packers are 4-7-1 SU.
The Falcons dropped one to Baltimore 26-16 in a Week 13 contest where Matt Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for just 131 yards and one touchdown. Ito Smith (only 22 rushing yards on seven attempts) led the running attack in the loss while Austin Hooper (five receptions, 44 yards, one TD) and Mohamed Sanu (three catches, 37 yards) handled the receiving duties.
In Week 13, Arizona knocked off this Green Bay crew by a score of 20-17. The Packers defense allowed the Cardinals to rush for 182 yards on 29 attempts, including two rush TDs. Christian Kirk had a solid showing, posting 54 yards on three catches for Arizona. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers completed 31-of-50 passes for 233 yards and one touchdown. Aaron Jones (36 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Davante Adams (eight receptions, 93 yards, one TD) and Jimmy Graham (eight catches, 50 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each of these squads sports a remarkably similar (65-35 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Falcons have rushed for 79 yards/game and have eight touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Packers are totaling 106 rushing yards per game and have nine total rush TDs.
It appears that the Packers may have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has produced 5.0 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 4.6 to opponents. The Falcons have ran for 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Falcons offensive scheme has tallied 320 yards per game through the air overall and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Packers have recorded 297 pass yards per game and have 21 total pass scores.
Atlanta has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 131 yards and pass for 276 yards per game. The Green Bay defense has allowed 246.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 127.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Packers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.55 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a 7.27 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ryan has already amassed 3,437 passing yards on the year, and has completed 291-of-413 attempts with 23 scores through the air and only four interceptions. He’s got a 7.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.51 over the past two outings.
Aaron Rodgers has connected on 269-of-435 passes for 3,306 yards, 20 TDs and one INT for Green Bay. His ANY/A sits at 7.40 for the season and 5.29 across his past two outings.
When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Atlanta got the victory over Green Bay, 34-23.
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Green Bay defense has tallied 38 sacks on the year while Atlanta has just 23.
The Green Bay offense has lost 10 fumbles in 2018 while the Atlanta offense has lost eight.
The Falcons offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Packers have put up 14 such plays.
Both teams have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Atlanta defense has given up 12 pass plays of 30+ yards while Green Bay has yielded 22 such plays.
The Atlanta offense has created four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Green Bay has created six such runs.
The Falcons defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Packers have given up eight such runs.
The Over/Under for Green Bay’s previous match going into it was 41. The under cashed in the team’s 20-17 defeat to Arizona.
Over its last three matchups, Green Bay is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Atlanta is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Green Bay has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 19-point win over Miami on November 11th representing its only victory over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-16 defeat to Baltimore.
Atlanta has produced 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 1.9 over its last two.
Green Bay has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
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