The New Orleans Saints (-8) are flying east to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. This Sunday matchup starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to televise the action.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Tampa Bay is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this Sunday NFC game. The Saints are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Buccaneers are +260. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points, and if one team gets out in front in the early stages, it’ll likely create a solid live betting opportunity.
The game’s O/U has shifted downward after opening at 57.5. The original line has remained firm.
The Saints have gained 3.0 units so far in 2018 and are 9-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 5-7. The Buccaneers have gained 0.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-6-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 8-4.
The Saints have gone 10-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are 5-7 SU overall and 2-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Saints fell to Dallas 13-10 in a Week 13 matchup where Drew Brees completed 18 passes for just 127 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Alvin Kamara (just 36 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the running attack while Kamara (eight receptions, 36 yards) and Michael Thomas (five catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Tampa Bay just put together a 24-17 win over Carolina in Week 13. The defense allowed the Panthers to pass for 300 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 168 yards. Christian McCaffrey was outstanding, recording 106 rushing yards on 10 attempts, along with 55 yards and a score on nine catches for the Panthers. For Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston completed 20-of-30 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Peyton Barber (45 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack as Adam Humphries (seven receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Chris Godwin (five catches, 101 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
New Orleans has run the ball on 48.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tampa Bay has a rush percentage of 38.6 percent. The Saints have produced 127 rush yards/game (including 112 per game against South opponents) and have 19 scores on the ground this year. The Bucs are averaging 98 rush yards per game (103 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Saints ought to hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has generated 4.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Buccaneers have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and given up 5.0 YPC to opponents.
The Saints offense has averaged 277 yards in the air overall (335 per game against conference opposition) and has 30 passing TDs so far. The Bucs have put up a ridiculous 359 pass yards per outing (326.0 in the NFC) and have 29 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Orleans has allowed 75 rush yards and 298 pass yards per game. The Tampa Bay D has given up 292.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.0 yards per game on the ground. The Saints are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.23 to opposing QBs, while the Bucs have allowed a 7.99 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brees is up to 3,091 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 76 percent of his 362 attempts with 26 passing scores and only two interceptions. He has a 9.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.40 over the past two games.
Jameis Winston has completed 128-of-194 passes for 1,629 yards, 10 TDs and 11 INTs for Tampa Bay. His ANY/A sits at 5.90 for the season and 8.27 over his last two games.
RELATED: Week 14 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
NFL Pick: Saints vs. Buccaneers
SU Winner – Saints, ATS Winner – Buccaneers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The New Orleans defense has 37 sacks on the year while Tampa Bay has 33.
Both teams have lost seven fumbles this year.
The Saints offense has produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Buccaneers have put up 13 such plays.
The New Orleans defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tampa Bay has given up five such plays.
Both defenses have produced five rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New Orleans offense has recorded 32 running plays of 10+ yards while Tampa Bay has accounted for 34 such plays.
The Saints defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buccaneers have given up 13 such runs.
The O/U for Tampa Bay’s last match going into it was 52.5. The under cashed in the 24-17 victory over Carolina.
In its last three matchups, Tampa Bay is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matchups, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for New Orleans’ previous game was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 13-10 defeat to Dallas.
As a team, New Orleans has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
Tampa Bay has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.6 over its past two.
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