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Week 16 Free Betting Pick – Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

NFL Playoffs Betting, NFL Playoffs Odds
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) and Detroit Lions are set to square off indoors at Ford Field. This early afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Betting Preview

Detroit is a live dog here and is currently getting 5.5 points. The Vikings are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Lions are +180. Should one team gets out in front early on it’ll create a solid in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 43.5 points.

With the line opening at 5 and the total initially placed at 43, the betting odds have swayed slightly.

The Vikings have recorded 2.4 units so far in 2018 and are 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 6-8. The Lions have lost 4.5 units this season. The team is 8-6 ATS and also has an O/U record of 6-8.

The Vikings have gone 7-6-1 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 5-9 SU overall and 1-3 SU against divisional foes.

The Vikes are coming off a resounding 41-17 victory over Miami in Week 15 where Kirk Cousins completed 14-of-21 passes for 215 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Dalvin Cook (136 yards on 19 rush attempts, two TDs) and Latavius Murray (68 yards on 15 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Stefon Diggs (four receptions, 49 yards, one TD) and Kyle Rudolph (three catches, 23 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

In Week 15, Buffalo knocked off this Detroit crew by a score of 14-13. Matthew Stafford completed 22-of-29 passes for 208 yards and one touchdown. Zach Zenner (45 yards on 10 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Kenny Golladay (seven receptions, 146 yards) and Levine Toilolo (four catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Minnesota has run the ball on 36.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Detroit has an overall rush percentage of 40.8 percent. The Vikings have produced 95 rush yards per game (including 77 per game against North opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Lions are logging 103 rush yards per game (87 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.

The Vikes offensive scheme has logged 280 yards per game through the air overall (298 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Lions have produced 244 pass yards per outing (223.0 in the NFC) and have 19 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 111 rush yards and 227 pass yards per game. The Detroit defense has allowed 249.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 115.4 yards per game on the ground. The Vikes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.41 to opponents, while the Lions have given up a 7.47 ANY/A.

Offensively, Cousins is up to 3,705 passing yards this year, and has connected on 364-of-512 attempts with 25 passing scores and 10 interceptions. Cousins has a 6.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.10 over the last two outings.

Matthew Stafford has completed 314-of-468 passes for 3,294 yards, 19 TDs and 11 INTs for Detroit. His ANY/A stands at 5.84 for the season and 6.11 across his past two games.

RELATED: Week 16 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions 

NFL Prediction: Vikings vs. Lions

SU Winner – Vikings, ATS Winner – Lions, O/U – Under

 

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Over/Under for Minnesota’s previous game was 45. The over cashed in the team’s 41-17 win over Miami.

Minnesota has produced 5.3 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.

Detroit has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its past two.

Detroit has lost seven fumbles this season while Minnesota has let 10 get away.

In its last three matches, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Detroit’s previous matchup was 39.5. The under cashed in that 14-13 defeat to Buffalo.

Over its last three matches, Detroit is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

Both passing attacks have produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Vikings have have made 14 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Lions have accounted for 15 such plays.

The Minnesota defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Detroit has given up eight such plays.

The Minnesota offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Detroit has created nine such runs.

The Vikings defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lions have given up nine such runs.

The Minnesota defense has 47 sacks on the year while Detroit has just 38.

*****

Written by GMS Previews

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