In the final iteration of the NFL regular season, the Miami Dolphins (+4) will be facing off against their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills (-4) at New Era Field. Kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on CBS.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Miami is a live dog and is currently getting 4 points in this Sunday AFC matchup. The Dolphins are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Bills are -160. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 38 points. It appears that there might be some good live betting scenarios for this game.
The opening line was -3. The game’s total hasn’t moved since it opened at 38.
The Dolphins are 8-7 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.1 units so far in 2018. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 7-8. The Bills are down 4.0 units this season. The team is 6-9 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-9.
The Dolphins have gone 7-8 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Bills are 5-10 SU overall and 1-4 SU against divisional foes.
The Dolphins fell to Jacksonville 17-7 in a Week 16 game where Ryan Tannehill completed 15-of-22 passes for only 146 yards, as well as one TD and an interception. Kenyan Drake (23 yards on six rush attempts) spearheaded the running attack while Drake (four receptions, 31 yards) and Danny Amendola (three catches, 40 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
Buffalo just lost a 24-12 game to New England last week. Josh Allen completed 20-of-41 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Keith Ford (33 rushing yards on seven attempts) mounted the running game as Zay Jones (five receptions, 67 yards, one TD) and Jason Croom (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Miami has run the ball on 45.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 47.9 percent. The Dolphins have run for 109 yards/game (including 101 per game versus East opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Bills are putting up 121 rushing yards per game (141 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
The Dolphins offense has logged 211 yards/contest in the air overall (169 per game against conference opposition) and has 25 passing scores so far. The Bills have recorded 191 pass yards per outing (242.8 against AFC foes) and have 10 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Miami has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 144 yards and pass for 261 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has given up 195.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bills are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.14 to opponents, while the Dolphins have given up a 6.60 ANY/A.
Offensively, Tannehill is up to 1,724 passing yards this year, and has completed 67 percent of his 219 attempts with 17 passing scores and seven interceptions. He’s got a 6.49 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.29 over the past two games.
The Dolphins have tried to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Backfield mates Kalen Ballage (21 rush yards, 57 receiving yards) and Kenyan Drake (486 rush yards, four rush TDs, 397 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have delivered in the Miami offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Josh Allen has connected on 139-of-268 passes for 1,646 yards, six TDs and 11 INTs. Allen’s ANY/A stands at a very poor 3.66 for the season and 5.32 over his last two games.
The Bills also like to heavily feature their backfield. In addition to Robert Foster (412 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Keith Ford (33 rush yards) and Jason Croom (202 receiving yards and one TD) have gotten plenty of action lately.
RELATED: Week 17 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
SU Winner – Dolphins, ATS Winner – Dolphins, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Buffalo defense has registered 32 sacks on the year while Miami has 30.
The Buffalo offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Miami has lost eight.
The Dolphins offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bills have accounted for seven such plays.
The Miami defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up two such plays.
The Miami offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Buffalo has created 13 such runs.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bills have given up 12 such runs.
The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last match going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 24-12 defeat to New England.
In its last three games, Buffalo is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Miami’s last game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-7 defeat to Jacksonville.
Miami has rushed for 6.9 yards per attempt over its last three games and 5.7 over its last two.
Buffalo has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
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