To conclude the 2018 regular season, the Packers (-7) are ready to host their NFC North nemesis Detroit Lions in Green Bay. Fans are able to tune in to the action on FOX and this early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Detroit is the road underdog in this NFC game and is currently receiving 7 points. The Lions are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Packers are -280. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 44 points. On the surface it appears that this contest ought to present some live betting scenarios.
The line originally opened at -8 and the over/under was initially 44.5, so it seems that sharp bettors tend to be siding with the Lions.
The Lions have lost 5.5 units this season and are 8-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-9. The Packers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors in 2018, losing 10.1 units. The team is 6-8-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 8-7.
The Lions are 5-10 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against NFC North opponents. The Packers are 6-8-1 SU overall and 1-3 SU against divisional foes.
The Lions came up short to Minnesota 27-9 in a Week 16 thumping where their defense allowed the Vikings to eat up the clock by rushing for 100 yards on 28 attempts. Kyle Rudolph had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 122 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches. On the offensive side, the Lions completed 23-of-43 passes for 161 yards. Matthew Stafford went 18-for-32 for 116 yards while Matt Cassel completed five-of-11 for 45 yards. LeGarrette Blount (only 29 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the running attack in the loss while Kenny Golladay (six receptions, 58 yards) and TJ Jones (six catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Green Bay is coming off of a 44-38 win over the Jets in Week 16. The team’s defensive secondary let the Jets air it out for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Robby Anderson had a productive outing in the loss, posting 140 yards on nine catches for New York. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers completed 37-of-55 passes for 442 yards and two touchdowns. Jamaal Williams (95 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win as Davante Adams (11 receptions, 71 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Detroit has run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Green Bay has an overall rush percentage of 34.8 percent. The Lions have run for 102 yards per game (including 87 per game versus North opponents) and have 10 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Packers are averaging 108 rushing yards per game (87 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
The Lions offensive scheme has averaged 238 yards in the air overall (211 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Packers have put up 298 pass yards per outing (307.2 in the NFC) and have 25 total pass scores.
Detroit has allowed opponents to run for an average of 114 yards and pass for 249 yards per game. The Green Bay defense has allowed 253.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.2 yards per game on the ground. The Packers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.90 to opposing QBs, while the Lions have given up a 7.62 ANY/A.
Offensively, Stafford has put up 3,303 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 325-of-494 attempts with 18 passing scores and 11 interceptions. He’s got a 5.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.29 over the last two games.
We’re expecting the Lions to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to wideout Kenny Golladay (917 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Zach Zenner (127 rush yards, one rush TD) and Theo Riddick (100 rush yards) have been significant focal points in the Detroit offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Aaron Rodgers has completed 344-of-550 passes for 4,142 yards, 25 TDs and one INT. Rodgers’ ANY/A stands at 7.24 for the year and 6.07 over his last two games.
The Packers also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to Jamaal Williams (152 receiving yards), Davante Adams (1,267 receiving yards and 13 receiving TDs) and Equanimeous St. Brown (five rush yards, 321 receiving yards) have gotten a multitude of touches lately.
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for Detroit’s last game was set at 41.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-9 defeat to Minnesota.
Detroit has produced 3.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
Green Bay has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its past two.
The Green Bay offense has lost 11 fumbles this season while Detroit has lost seven.
Over its last three contests, Detroit is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Detroit has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 14-point victory over Arizona on December 9th representing the only win over that stretch.
The O/U for Green Bay’s previous game was set at 47. The over cashed in the team’s 44-38 win over the Jets.
In its last three games, Green Bay is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Lions offense has created five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Packers have accounted for 16 such plays.
The Detroit defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Green Bay has given up six such plays.
Both teams have produced 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Detroit offense has recorded 39 running plays of 10+ yards while Green Bay has accounted for 48 such plays.
Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Lions have given up 35 running plays of 10+ yards while the Packers have given up 40 such plays.
The Green Bay D has notched 43 sacks on the year while Detroit has 40.
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