The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots are ready to battle on the turf at Gillette Stadium for NFL week 5 Thursday night football. The game is scheduled to be nationally-televised on FOX and the opening kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. ET. The Patriots are huge 10 point favorites in this matchup with the Colts receiving +377 moneyline odds while the Patriots are at -490 with the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.
Indianapolis Colts +10 +377 ov 51
New England Patriots -10 -490 un 51
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Betting Preview
The Colts are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 1-2. The Patriots are down 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and also own an O/U record of 1-2.
The Colts are 1-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Patriots are 2-2 SU.
The Colts came up short to Houston 37-34 in a Week 4 game where Andrew Luck completed 40 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns. Jordan Wilkins (only 16 rushing yards on eight attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss while Hines (nine receptions, 63 yards, two TDs) and Chester Rogers (eight catches, 85 yards) handled the receiving duties.
New England is coming off of a blowout 38-7 win over Miami in Week 4. The Pats defense did its job in the victory, holding the Dolphins to only 135 passing yards and 56 yards on the ground. Frank Gore was a bright spot in the loss, recording 41 rushing yards on 11 attempts for Miami. For New England, Tom Brady completed 23-of-35 passes for 274 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Sony Michel (112 yards on 25 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win while White (eight receptions, 68 yards, one TD) and Phillip Dorsett (four catches, 55 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps.
Indianapolis has run the ball on 30.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 45.8 percent. The Colts have produced 72 rush yards/game and have only one score via handoffs this year. The Pats are averaging 117 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.
The Colts offense has tallied 282 yards/game through the air overall and has nine passing score so far. The Pats have put up 230 pass yards per contest and also have nine total pass TDs.
Indianapolis has allowed opponents to run for an average of 109 yards and throw for 291 yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 237.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 6.10 to opposing QBs, while the Pats are yielding an ANY/A of 6.06.
Passing-wise, Luck has put up 962 yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 100-of-146 attempts with eight passing scores and three interceptions. Luck’s got a 6.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.28 over the last two outings.
T.Y. Hilton (244 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Nyheim Hines (36 rush yards, one rush TD, 94 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Ryan Grant (153 receiving yards) have all played big roles lately.
Tom Brady has managed to complete 73-of-109 passes for 785 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for New England. His ANY/A sits at 6.96 for the season and 5.38 over his last two games.
We’re expecting the Pats to control tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Rob Gronkowski (182 receiving yards, one TD this season) has chipped in lately, but James White (73 rush yards, one rush TD, 179 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Sony Michel (146 rush yards, one rush TD) have delivered significant production to the New England offense.
NFL Prediction: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
SU Winner – Patriots
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Indianapolis defense has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. New England has produced just six sacks.
Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
The Colts offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have put up one such play.
The Indianapolis defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New England has given up one such play.
The Indianapolis offense has created one rushing play of 20+ yards, while New England has created two such runs.
Both defenses have allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Colts have given up 12 running plays of 10+ yards while the Patriots have given up 17 such plays.
As a team, Indianapolis has produced 3.67241379310345 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
New England has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its past two.
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