The Chicago Bears (-9.5) will clash with the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. This early afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 9.5 points in this Sunday game. The Bears are also receiving -440 moneyline odds while the Bills are +310. If one team can catch a lucky break early it will generate a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 37.5 points.
The game’s total hasn’t moved after it was initially established at 37.5. Having said that, the opening line was 8.5 and the sharp action is siding with the Bears.
The Bears are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.8 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 4-3. The Bills have lost 3.8 units this season. The team is 3-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-6.
The Bears are 4-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bills are 2-6 SU.
The Bears are coming off a resounding 24-10 win over the Jets last week where Mitchell Trubisky completed just 16-of-29 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Howard (81 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Trubisky (51 yards on six carries) spearheaded the running attack. Taylor Gabriel (four receptions, 52 yards) and Josh Bellamy (four catches, 37 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Buffalo just lost a brutal 25-6 game to New England in Week 8. Derek Anderson completed 22-of-39 passes for 290 yards and one interception. LeSean McCoy logged an outstanding statline in the loss. In addition to 13 yards on 12 rush attempts, McCoy also reeled in six receptions for 82 yards.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each team has a remarkably similar (46-54) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bears have produced 138 rush yards/game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bills are logging 97 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers so far, it appears the Bears may own an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Bills have tallied 3.7 yards per carry and given up 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bears offensive scheme has averaged 259 yards through the air overall and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bills have put up 176 pass yards per contest and have three total pass TDs.
Defensively, Chicago has allowed opponents to run for an average of 83 yards and pass for 263 yards per game. The Buffalo D has allowed 237.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.4 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bears have given up an ANY/A of 5.75 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are yielding an ANY/A of 6.04.
Offensively, Trubisky is up to 1,481 passing yards this season, and has connected on 129-of-190 attempts with 13 scores through the air and only four interceptions. He has a 7.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.33 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Chicago in this one. As a group, Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton and Mitchell Trubisky have combined to account for 469 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Derek Anderson has completed 22-of-39 passes for 290 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Anderson’s ANY/A stands at 5.21 for the season and 3.36 over his past two games.
We’re looking for the Bills to control the game’s pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with WR Kelvin Benjamin (191 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), Chris Ivory (163 rush yards, one rush TD, 115 receiving yards) and LeSean McCoy (256 rush yards, 167 receiving yards) have been focal points in the Bills’ recent offensive gameplans.
RELATED: Week 9 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills
SU Winner – Bears, ATS Winner – Bears, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
Buffalo has lost five fumbles this season while Chicago has lost four.
The Buffalo defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 21 times this year. Chicago has produced 20 sacks.
As a team, Chicago has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
Buffalo has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
Buffalo has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a one-point victory over Tennessee on October 7th accounting for the one win over that stretch.
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