Another weekend, and another loaded Saturday lineup in college basketball. In this edition of Picks to Click, we take looks at the Atlantic 10, ACC, Big East, and the Big 12 and break down what you need to know about each of the top five match ups.
UMass at No. 25 VCU: Is it any surprise that VCU’s two game losing streak against La Salle and St. Bonaventure came when they were without the services of do-it-all star Treveon Graham? Well, it shouldn’t be. Graham is the horsepower behind the Rams, and since his return, Shaka Smart’s group has rebounded with two convincing wins over George Washington and Saint Louis. Coming to town this time are the Minutemen, who sit at 9-4 in conference play and just one game back from the three-team logjam that is atop the A10. UMass is about offensive balance and executing in close games both home and away. They are 6-1 in games decided by six points or less since the beginning of conference play.
This isn’t a must-win for VCU, but it’s certainly a game they should win at home. The Rams were the unquestioned favorite in the A10 through the preseason, and the last thing you want is to limp into the NCAA Tournament, which begins in under a month. Pick: VCU
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No. 14 Iowa State at Texas: Does any team in the country need a big win more than Texas? The reality is that Rick Barnes’ group hasn’t beaten a tournament team since West Virginia on Jan. 17, and one could certainly argue that it’s their only win over a real tournament team all season. Unlucky for them, they’ve got an Iowa State team that is coming off of two big wins over WVU and Oklahoma State. The Cyclones also clearly see the Kansas Jayhawks only one game ahead of them in the Big 12 standings. I’d expect Fred Hoiberg’s group to be well prepared for Texas’ shot blocking abilities on the interior and be more than happy to pull guys like Cameron Ridley out of the paint and force him to not just defend, but keep up with a high paced game.
Picking a road winner in any conference game, especially when they are playing someone with the horses that Texas has, is dangerous. However, this feels like a teetering point game for UT, where a loss could be especially devastating to their confidence. Iowa State knows that, and fear is not the kind of motivator that desire is. Pick: Iowa State
No. 23 West Virginia at No. 22 Oklahoma State: Two teams, two directions. The Mountaineers are still riding momentum gained from a thrilling win over Kansas as they “travel” to Stillwater for a date with the Pokes. Juwan Staten has been exceptional as of late offensively, but his ability to avoid a single turnover against KU is what may have truly been the difference for WVU. Turnovers against Oklahoma State lead to run outs, transition threes and ultimately, allow a marginal offensive team to get good looks. Phil Forte and Le’Bryan Nash account for nearly 50-percent of the Cowboys’ points per game, but outside of those two, it’s really only Anthony Hickey Jr. that needs to be accounted for in half court sets. Perhaps that is why OSU has lost two in a row.
It has been four days since WVU’s big win, but it still feels like this could be a let down game from an energy standpoint. Travis Ford knows his group needs a big win here for seeding purposes in both postseason tournaments, and I think the OSU fans do as well–I’m expecting a rowdy atmosphere if the weather holds up. Pick: Oklahoma State
Miami at No. 12 Louisville: The drama surrounding Chris Jones took another interesting turn when Rick Pitino lifted Jones’ suspension in time for the weekend match up against Miami. Jones, who missed UL’s loss at Syracuse, has been one of the nation’s most inconsistent offensive threats this season, but it is his defense that will be needed most against the Hurricanes. Miami goes as Angel Rodriguez goes, and Jones will almost certainly draw the match up. If he can make life uncomfortable for Rodriguez, and keep him from turning in a sequel to his “at Duke” performance earlier in the season, Louisville should be alright.
Louisville typically holds teams to nearly ten points per game fewer than Miami scores, and with the game being played at the Yum!, I’m going to give the advantage to the Cardinals as I believe their perimeter defense is what ultimately separates them from Miami. Pick: Louisville
No. 19 Butler at Xavier: After nearly knocking off Villanova at home, Butler nearly got knocked off themselves by Creighton earlier this week. Now they travel to one of the most difficult places to play in the conference to start a tricky five game slate that ends the season. Xavier likes to kick up the pace of play while Butler intends to be a bit more deliberate with things and force their opponents to defend the entire shot clock. As I said earlier, road games in conference are difficult to gauge, but I have a feeling Butler’s style of play with present enough problems for Xavier for the Bulldogs to get the win. Pick: Butler
