Another strong week for the college football underdog picks, with the dogs going 4-1 against the spread — with Rutgers missing by only 1.5 points — and a couple of straight-up wins as well. That’s a big step forward, but there’s still plenty of work to be done to get back to the .500 point and ultimately beyond.
One thing, at least for this week: We’re done with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights’ computer profile continues to be better than what their results have been, but you can only beat your head against the same wall and lose so much. So, good luck, Rutgers, but you’ll have to cover without us.
Instead, we’ll go after some other big spreads. We might not hit many straight-up wins this week (though even one would help your earnings an awful lot), but let’s see if some of these teams can’t keep the spread close. Here are this week’s best college football underdog picks:
Underdog pick No. 1: UNLV
Vs. Air Force (-11), 10 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network
If you’re going to be up late watching football on Friday, and you have a good cable package, why not put a few dollars on this game? Computer systems have it as a relative toss-up, maybe with a slight edge to Air Force, but the game is in Las Vegas and the spread seems out of whack. Granted, the Rebels haven’t played well in a couple of weeks, giving up a ton of points, and this one figures to be high-scoring. But that means the spread has some recency bias; plus, UNLV can score, too, and it will be desperate for a win at home. Take the points with what should be an energetic crowd on Friday night.
Pick: UNLV +11
Underdog pick No. 2: North Carolina State
At Clemson (-17), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Gameday
This might be one of the more under-the-radar October meetings of unbeatens you’ll ever see. Most everyone is aware that Clemson is undefeated, of course, but did you know NC State is, too? The Wolfpack clearly doesn’t have the talent level or the prestige of the Tigers, but it is a good team, and this trip to Death Valley might as well be the Super Bowl for those players. That’s a good spot to take an underdog, and that’s especially true with Clemson relying on a true freshman quarterback. Even if Trevor Lawrence is uber-talented, we’ll see about his consistency against an NC State team that hasn’t yet allowed more than 21 points in a game.
Pick: NC State +17
Underdog pick No. 3: Wake Forest
At Florida State (-10), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
It’s wise to be wary about lines that just don’t seem to make sense: The bookmakers generally know something you don’t, and you can get burned playing those lines too often. But every now and then, it’s just too enticing. Florida State is playing better than its wretched first few weeks, but how could it not be? And have you seen anything from the Seminoles that tells you they’re capable of blowing out an ACC team? Perhaps this one will hurt, but I’ll make Florida State prove it can cover double digits.
Pick: Wake Forest +10
Underdog pick No. 4: Texas State
At UL-Monroe (-11), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Here we go off the beaten path. UL-Monroe has outperformed its computer profile so far, but that sort of variance will only last so long. These teams are essentially even on paper, so even though the Warhawks have the home-field advantage, 11 points seems like way too many for the favorite. The Bobcats were a tough-luck loser against Georgia Southern as a big underdog last week — perhaps this week they’ll break through.
Pick: Texas State +11
Underdog pick No. 5: Purdue
Vs. Ohio State (-14), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
To maintain its unbeaten record, Ohio State has only needed to go down to the final possession once, and that was at Penn State. No crime there. But the Buckeyes have hardly been convincing in many of their other games, letting Indiana and Minnesota both hang around well into the second half. The Buckeyes and Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Dwayne Haskins are going to score some points here, but Purdue, after an 0-3 start, has flashed a serious offense itself under quarterback David Blough, who didn’t start until Week 4. Can the Boilermakers ride a primetime home crowd to an emotional boost and hang around till the fourth quarter? It seems like a good bet.
Pick: Purdue +14
SEASON RECORD: 17-20 ATS, 11-26 straight up
