Last week was a step in the wrong direction for the underdog picks, dropping us barely below .500 against the spread for the year with only a few weeks left to make things right.
There are plenty of lopsided lines out there in cupcake week in the SEC and a few other places, so let’s look at this week’s best college football underdog picks.
Underdog pick No. 1: New Mexico
Vs. Boise State (-21), 9 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network
Boise State won a huge game last week against Fresno State, so the Broncos have received a lot of hype and talking heads are remembering that they’re one of the best Group of Five teams in the country year in and year out. That’s all true, but it also might have Boise State primed for a letdown. This is a good spot for New Mexico, which has been decent, if not good, all year long and likely will have its biggest and most boisterous home crowd of the season. An outright win isn’t likely, but this isn’t quite the same Boise juggernaut we’ve seen in years past, and the Lobos ought to be able to keep it close.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Parlay Guide
Pick: New Mexico +21
Underdog pick No. 2: Middle Tennessee
At Kentucky (-16), noon ET, SEC Network
The Blue Raiders come in having lost two games already to Southeastern Conference opponents, Vanderbilt and Georgia, by a combined score of 74-14, so why is this one of the picks of the week? Well, since then, the Blue Raiders have won six of seven games. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been in its usual November swoon after an unbelievable start. Again, it’s probably asking too much for Middle Tennessee to win outright, but 16 points is a few too many.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +16
Underdog pick No. 3: Arkansas
At Mississippi State (-20.5), noon ET, ESPN
One of the most popular teams throughout the season as an underdog pick has been Arkansas, which is winless in the SEC but seems to get undervalued quite a bit on the point spreads. The Razorbacks are plus EV for bettors and again appear to be given too large of a line here. Mississippi State is the better team here, to be sure, but the Bulldogs don’t score a ton of points and will have trouble blowing out the Hogs. Plus, while Arkansas will pull out all the stops to win an SEC game, Mississippi State might be playing out the string a bit after being shut out by Alabama last week.
Pick: Arkansas +20.5
Underdog pick No. 4: Minnesota
Vs. Northwestern (-3), noon ET, Big Ten Network
Hard to believe Northwestern is your Big Ten West champion and will play either Ohio State or Michigan with a chance to play a big spoiler role. With that all decided, though, Northwestern still has a couple of games to play, including this tricky road game in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers are a tough team to figure out, but they might have turned a corner with last week’s easy home win against Purdue. The Wildcats might be overvalued here based on that division championship, and that’s an edge you can exploit.
Pick: Minnesota +3
Underdog pick No. 5: UAB
At Texas A&M (-16), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Who had this as a Top 25 matchup before the season began — or even a couple of weeks ago? After an early, ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, UAB has done nothing but win, usually big, and brings a 9-1 record and a No. 25 ranking in the coaches poll to College Station for what was supposed to be an easy win for Texas A&M before next week’s season-ending showdown with LSU. The Aggies better not treat it like a breather, because UAB can play, and it says here the Blazers will hang around most of the game before A&M pulls away for a too-close-for-comfort victory.
Pick: UAB +16
SEASON RECORD: 28-29 ATS, 17-40 straight up
