Time to bounce back after a poor Week 4 for the GMS underdog picks. There were quite a few surprises around the country, but not the ones we picked.
However, this is the time of year when dogs start to bark: It’s conference play, when teams and coaches that know each other oh-so-well start to butt heads and letdowns and landmines are everywhere. Who’s ripe for an upset this week? Here’s this week’s best college football underdog picks.
Underdog pick No. 1: Arkansas
Vs. Texas A&M (-21.5), noon ET, ESPN
OK, so taking the Razorbacks +30 at Auburn last week didn’t quite work out, but that one needs to be chalked up at least partly to bad luck. Arkansas actually out-gained Auburn 290-225 and would have covered the spread despite a series of special-teams gaffes and if the Tigers hadn’t chosen to kick a field goal with three minutes left to make the score 34-3. Many teams in that situation would have simply run the ball on fourth down and be content to let the other team have a final possession. Anyway, point is that while Arkansas is not a good team, it is an undervalued team. That’s the case again this week against Texas A&M, which just came off an emotional loss at Alabama. The Aggies aren’t likely in danger of losing this game, but Arkansas is playing better and should be able to hang within the three touchdowns.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Pick: Arkansas +21.5
Underdog pick No. 2: Georgia State
Vs. UL-Monroe (-7.5), 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+
If you’re like most casual bettors, you don’t know much about either UL-Monroe or Georgia State, but that’s OK. Trust that most computer rankings have these as evenly matched teams, or close to it. If the game was in Monroe, Lousiana, the spread of 7.5 might be more appropriate, but to take a home team in Georgia State (fun fact: The Panthers play in Turner Field, former home of baseball’s Atlanta Braves) with more than a touchdown is a great value. It might even be worth a sprinkle on the money line, too.
Pick: Georgia State +7.5
Underdog pick No. 3: Baylor
At Oklahoma (-24), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
It sure seems like Oklahoma is due to come off its relative funk at some point, but the Sooners have struggled out of the gates three straight weeks and didn’t look good in surviving an upset bid by Army last week. Maybe this is just what Oklahoma is, a good-but-not-great team that shouldn’t be carrying around such huge spreads. Still, OU is a name brand in college football and continues to get big numbers next to its name as casual bettors’ eyes light up at the matchup. Well, let them take the losses and grab some value, like a solid Baylor team with a whole bunch of points. More often than not, you’ll be on the right side.
Pick: Baylor +24
Underdog pick No. 4: Coastal Carolina
At Troy (-14), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Back to games you’ll need a strong internet connection and a subscription package to watch. But sometimes that’s where the value is. Coastal Carolina is coming off of a solid road win at Louisiana-Lafayette and might be more of a threat in the Sun Belt Conference race than originally thought. Troy has traditionally been one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and gained more national notoriety by winning at Nebraska a couple of weeks ago. But that doesn’t mean the Trojans are 14 points better than Coastal. In fact, it might mean the line has been artificially raised up a couple of points just because casual bettors will only remember the Nebraska win.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +14
Underdog pick No. 5: California
Vs. Oregon (-3), 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Cal has been one of the more under-the-radar teams in the nation this season; the Bears’ signature win came in late at night at BYU — but remember what BYU has done since, winning at Wisconsin and vaulting into the Top25. The Golden Bears might become a factor in the Pac-12 North race. Oregon is obviously a good team — the Ducks had Stanford beaten last week before letting it slip through their grasp in a heartbreak of memorable proportions. But that might be even more reason to bet Cal here. If Oregon has any kind of an emotional hangover from last week’s tough loss, a game between evenly matched teams tilts even more in the home team’s favor.
Pick: Cal +3
SEASON RECORD: 8-14 ATS, 5-17 straight up
