The underdog picks have gotten off to a rough start in the new season, following up a 1-1 record in a mini Week 0 with a terrible 1-4 mark in Week 1. But more games means more data, and that can give you an advantage with the lines.
One lesson learned from Week 1 is to beware of trendy underdog picks like Florida Atlantic and Tennessee, which both were blitzed by higher-ranked opponents away from home.
Here are five picks sure to do better than last week’s:
Underdog Pick No. 1: Duke
At Northwestern (-3), noon ET, ESPNU
Northwestern is riding high after opening up with a Big Ten Conference victory on the road at Purdue, and the Wildcats will look to make it 2-0 against power-conference teams and stake a claim at next week’s top 25 if they can beat Duke as 3-point favorites in this one.
But the Blue Devils opened with their own impressive performance, a 34-14 beatdown of a solid Army team. It was Duke’s fourth straight game scoring more than 30 points dating back to last season. Given a sleepy home crowd at an 11 a.m. local kickoff and perhaps a bit of a letdown after last week’s emotional victory, take a shot at Duke with the points.
Pick: Duke +3
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Underdog Pick No. 2: Colorado
At Nebraska (-5.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Cornhuskers were scheduled to open up with Akron last week, which would have provided them — and young quarterback Adrian Martinez — some margin for error as they opened the season. Instead, the game was canceled because of severe thunderstorms, and Nebraska must open up with an old rival from its Big 8 and Big 12 days in Colorado.
The Buffaloes, meanwhile, pasted Colorado State in an impressive performance last week. It’s an old coaching adage that teams always improve their most between Games No. 1 and No. 2, and if that’s true, Colorado has a big advantage here.This line has already dropped down from its opening point of -6.5, so act quickly.
Pick: Colorado +5.5
Underdog Pick No. 3: Arkansas State
At Alabama (-37), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
It always seems risky to bet against Alabama, and there’s no doubt there’s some risk here. But there are two factors at play: One is the Crimson Tide’s history under Nick Saban — they have traditionally taken it easy on smaller-conference opponents. In fact, Alabama is only 4-13-1 ATS against small-conference teams under coach Saban.
The other factor is that the Red Wolves aren’t half-bad. They’re expected to contend for the Sun Belt Conference title and are good enough to score a touchdown or two against Tide backups that could swing the final score in your favor with a huge 37-point spread. This is a game worth waiting to bet, too; traditionally, Alabama has strong public support and the spread might push even higher by Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Arkansas State +37
Underdog Pick No. 4: Fresno State
At Minnesota (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1
One of the more under-the-radar performances of note in Week 1 belonged to Fresno State, which pummeled Idaho 79-13 late at night on a minor channel. Granted, the Vandals aren’t going to put fear in anyone, but it takes some serious firepower to put up 79 points on anyone.
Meanwhile, although Minnesota handled New Mexico State without too much trouble, the Golden Gophers fell behind after a quarter and generally looked sleepy. They should be more up for this game, and they’ll need to be. It’s a good opportunity to cash in on a hot Fresno State team before the nation gets to know it.
Pick: Fresno State +2.5
Underdog Pick No. 5: Arizona State
at Michigan State (-6.5), 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Ever heard of Pac-12 after dark? This one will be way after dark for Michigan State, which is usually in bed by the time this game hits halftime. Arizona State, meanwhile, was impressive in its first performance under Herm Edwards. He was a controversial hire, but folks in the desert will rally fiercely behind a winner, and this is a chance for a big statement early.
The Spartans, meanwhile, will need to be much sharper than they were in escaping their opener against Utah State, 38-31. If Arizona State can score a similar number of points in this one, it could be hard for Michigan State to rally. At worst, the Sun Devils ought to stay in the game until the very end.
Pick: Arizona State +6.5
SEASON RECORD: 2-5
