The BIG-12 will put two of its better teams on display when the (10) TCU Horned Frogs host the (23) West Virginia Mountaineers in Fort Worth, Texas this weekend. The conference showdown is set to begin on Saturday, October 7th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The intriguing match-up can be seen on the FOX Sports 1 Network. As of this write-up, the Horned Frogs are a -13.5 point favorite and the game’s total now sits at 69 points.
The West Virginia Mountaineers got a chance to rest up last week after completely destroying the Kansas Jayhawks in Week three 56-34 on the road. The Mountaineers continued their offensive prowess against Kansas. So far, West Virginia is ranked 2nd in the country in total yards (596), and points scored (48.8). Unfortunately, it’s their suspect defense that will be put to the test against the Horned Frogs this Saturday.
The TCU Horned Frogs also got a much-needed break last week after walking into Oklahoma State’s backyard and handing the Cowboys their first defeat of the season 44-31. In that contest, TCU capitalized on four Cowboy turnovers and translated enough of them into the points. As a result, the Horned Frogs remained undefeated and got a bye week to revel in their victory.
Last season, the West Virginia Mountaineers defended their home turf against the Horned Frogs. In a lower-scoring than expected affair, the Mountaineers had enough in their tank to dispatch of TCU 34-10.
(23) West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1)
The West Virginia Mountaineers are off to a good start in 2017. After losing their opening contest on the road to the Virginia Tech Hokies, West Virginia has reeled off three straight victories. With that being said, all three of those wins have come against opponents that aren’t considered to be anything to really have to worry about.
Quarterback Will Grier has been all that the Mountaineers have hoped for this season. Even in their loss to the Hokies, Grier performed well throwing for over 370 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Overall, the junior signal-caller has accumulated just under 1,375 yards passing with 13 scores and only three picks. Undoubtedly, he will need to make it five straight superb performances if West Virginia wants to leave Fort Worth with a win.
Overall, the junior signal-caller has accumulated just under 1,375 yards passing with 13 scores and only three picks. Undoubtedly, he will need to make it five straight superb performances if West Virginia wants to leave Fort Worth with a win.
Running backs Justin Crawford and Kennedy McCoy are doing the best they can to keep the offense balanced for the Mountaineers. Together, the two tailbacks have rushed for 660 yards with six scores. Crawford has been especially productive, rushing for over 100 yards in all four contests and has a team-high six rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Will Grier isn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run with it either. He also has chipped in another 131 yards with two more trips to the end zone.
The Mountaineers are also finding plenty of teamwork from four different wideouts. Gary Jennings and David Sills V are the two that stand out to me. Both have caught over 25 passes and both have found the back of the end zone. Jennings leads the team with 29 catches and 438 yards. Sills V is Will Grier’s favorite choice in the red zone, catching a team-high seven touchdowns.
The West Virginia defense did have some trouble finding ways to stop the Kansas offense in their latest test. Unfortunately, they allowed the Jayhawks to compile 564 yards of total offense. That has to be concerning as they will face a much better offense when they play TCU this weekend on the road. They are very weak against the run, ranking 114th in the nation, surrendering 226 yards per game.
(10) TCU Horned Frogs (4-0)
So far, the TCU Horned Frogs have exceeded their lofty expectations for this year’s campaign after notching four straight wins to start the season. Including, an impressive road win against the Cowboys in Stillwater.
Offensively, the Horned Frogs have done a great job of running and passing the ball effectively in 2017. Quarterback Kenny Hill has completed 85 passes for 965 yards with nine touchdowns and three picks. As a result, TCU sits 46th in the country, passing for 264.8 yards per match.
The Horned Frogs actually prefer to run the ball between the hashes first to soften up opposing teams secondaries. The Horned Frogs now sit at 25th in the country, rushing for 223 yards per contest. Running back Darius Anderson is their go-to guy, rushing for 422 yards on 68 carries with six trips to the promised land. Teammate Kyle Hicks who also has 128 yards and a score is hampered with a hamstring injury for this game on Saturday.
To my surprise, there isn’t really one single receiver that stands out as the Horned Frogs main target. Instead, five different wideouts all have nine catches or more. Furthermore, all of the pass catchers have eclipsed the century mark and all have found ways to score touchdowns. Apparently, Kenny Hill is an equal opportunity provider in the Horned Frogs’ passing attack.
The big difference between the Horned Frog’s defense and the Mountaineers is that TCU can stop the run. In fact, they happen to be one of the nation’s best front seven. All told, the Horned Frogs are ranked 13th in Division I football allowing only 95 yards per game.
Prediction
Well, the complete lack of competition really keeps me wondering if the West Virginia Mountaineers can go into Fort Worth and cover this +13.5 spread. On the other hand, they did manhandle the Horned Frogs last year and a pretty darn good at putting points up on the board.
TCU has more than proved that they can also move the football at will against opposing defenses and should have their way against the Mountaineers on Saturday. The fact that WEst Virginia doesn’t do well against the run has to be concerning for Mountaineer fans.
The play that I’m going to suggest to my readers for this match-up is the contest’s over 69. For one, I’m glad to see it down from 73 points. Secondly, I like the fact that both of these schools can run the ball well and pass the ball well. That should at the very least keep both of these defenses guessing. I also really like the fact that TCU’s secondary will have to play honest because running back Justin Crawford is that good.
So there you have it, grab the over 69 in a game that should provide plenty of offense. Even if one team, like the Mountaineers, fall behind early. The over should come in in the fourth quarter whether it is junk points from the West Virginia offense or a tightly contested battle with both teams exchanging offensive punches throughout. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games.
The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
The Over is 3-0-1 in the Mountaineers last four games overall.
The Horned Frogs are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games.
The Horned Frogs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
The Over is 15-6 in the Horned Frogs last 21 games following a bye week.
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