The No. 24 TCU Horned Frogs (14-5, 2-5 Big 12) welcome the No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers (16-3, 5-2 Big 12) in a matchup that pits phenomenal offense against tremendous defense. The game can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 160 points with West Virginia set as a 1-point favorite.
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs ATS Prediction
The Mountaineers come in on a high note after dismantling the Texas Longhorns in their last outing, 86-51. The Mountaineers held the Longhorns to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.2 (below their season average of 30.2). The Longhorns also had a turnover percentage of 20.1 (above their season average of 15.7). West Virginia received a boost from Sagaba Konate, who recorded 10 points, 14 rebounds and six blocks.
In the Horned Frogs’ last game, they were beaten by the Kansas State Wildcats, 73-68. Kansas State’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over TCU. The Wildcats had a rate of 0.608 (above their season average of 0.558), while the Horned Frogs posted a mark of 0.500 (below their season average of 0.581). With 11 points and 10 rebounds, TCU’s Kenrich Williams had a good performance.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the productive offense of TCU (seventh in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 120.5) takes on the stingy defense of West Virginia (seventh in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 90.3). Additionally, the Mountaineers, who rank ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (36.8 percent), will face a difficult test against the Horned Frogs, who rank 46th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.9 percent).
West Virginia holds records of 16-3 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Mountaineers have a tendency to go under the total (60.0 percent).
Meanwhile, TCU is 14-5 SU and 9-9 ATS. Unlike West Virginia, Horned Frogs games tend to finish over the projected point total (72.2 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Konate (11.0 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.8 blocks) has been fantastic for the Mountaineers while Vladimir Brodziansky (20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Horned Frogs.
After the Mountaineers won both games against the Horned Frogs last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the last game, West Virginia won 61-60. The Mountaineers’ 13.3 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Horned Frogs, who had a rate of 27.7.
West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – West Virginia, ATS Winner – West Virginia, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
West Virginia is 4-4 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 4 unders.
At home, TCU is 5-6 ATS with 8 overs and 3 unders.
West Virginia ranks 36th in assists allowed per game (11.3) while TCU ranks 232nd (16.4).
The Mountaineers rank 25th in three pointers attempted per game (26.8) while the Horned Frogs rank 199th in three pointers allowed per game (23.6).
TCU ranks 10th in rebounds allowed per game (30.3) while West Virginia ranks 121st (34.5).
The Mountaineers rank 22nd in blocks per game (5.2) while the Horned Frogs rank 123rd in blocks allowed per game (3.9).
West Virginia ranks sixth in steals per game (9.4) while TCU ranks 72nd (7.0).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, West Virginia is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
TCU is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Mountaineers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.0, down from 16.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Horned Frogs have scored an average of 88.6 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 87.0 points per game (9.4 above their season average).
