The Michigan State Spartans will host the Western Michigan Broncos in a week two match-up on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. The game is slated to begin on Saturday, September 9th at 3:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on the BIG-10 Network. Las Vegas had the Spartans as a -6.5 favorite but the betting public has now pushed it to 7. Also, the contest’s total sits at 50.
The Western Michigan Broncos put up a valiant effort in their 49-31 road defeat to the Trojans. The Michigan State Spartans are coming off an easy 35-10 home win over the Bowling Green Eagles last week. In their last meeting, Michigan State defeated Western Michigan 37-24 back in the 2015 season.
Western Michigan (0-1)
The Broncos gave the fourth ranked USC Trojans all they could handle in their opening road game at the Coliseum. Unfortunately for Western Michigan, they fell in the fourth quarter to the tune of 49-31. The game was tied at 21 after three quarters of battle, but USC answered with 28 fourth quarter points.
Believe it or not, the Western Michigan offense didn’t even really look to move the ball through the air against the Trojans. In fact, the Broncos recorded only 67 yards in their passing game.
Quarterback Jon Wassink completed 11 of his 22 passes for 67 yards and a pick. as the Broncos focused more on their running game. Wassink is took over as the new starting quarterback with no experience under his belt after replacing Zach Terrell.
Obviously, the Broncos kept their focus on the running game against USC. Western Michigan responded with a huge game, recording 263 yards on 48 carries. Three different tail backs split time in the effort with senior tail back Jamari Bogan getting a touchdown and LaVante Bellamy broke the century mark. Jon Wassink also added another score with his feet.
With the absence of a passing game, Western Michigan’s receivers spent most of the afternoon trying to seal the edges for their rushing attack. No receiver caught more than three passes and nobody eclipsed the 30 yard mark.
Western Michigan’s defense was able to contain Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Darnold for three quarters. Eventually, the Trojans offense proved to much to handle as the Broncos wore down in the Southern California heat.
At the end of the day, the Broncos gave in to a total of 521 total yards. They also allowed USC to go 7 for 11 on third downs. Even with the final stats, Western Michigan does feature a strong defense that will keep them in games in the MAC Conference in 2017.
Michigan State (1-0)
The Michigan State Spartans got their 2017 season off to a slow start against the Bowling Green Falcons. Eventually, they built momentum and cruised to a convincing 35-10 home win in East Lansing.
Greenhorn quarterback Brian Lewerke was outstanding, converting on 22 of his 33 passes for 250 yards and three touchdowns. The youngster also proved to be mobile, rushing for a team-high 69 yards on the day. The sophomore quarterback saw very minimal action last season and Michigan State hopes he improves weekly.
Running back L.J. Scott could not get a whole lot going on the ground, rushing for 39 yards off 15 carries. Surprisingly, because he rumbled for productive 994 yards last season. I expect that he will bounce back with a strong performance against the Broncos on September 9th.
The Spartans didn’t really do anything impressive through the air but were good enough to keep the Eagles on their toes. Wide out Darrel Stewart Jr. led the way in the air, making six catches for 85 yards. The sophomore wide receiver should fair nicely this year along with fellow sophomore Tristan Jackson. Jackson made three catches for 41 yards as the second option.
Michigan State’s defense was very sharp in their season opener. The “Mean Green” held the Eagles to only 67 yards via the ground. Furthermore, the unit as a whole only allowed 212 total yards by game’s end.
The Spartans defense is a young squad with lots of inexperience heading into the 2017 season. However, they should show improvement as the season progresses. The Spartans rush defense will face a much bigger challenge against the Broncos running game in this match-up.
Prediction
Sin City set the Spartans as a 6.5 point favorite when they introduced the line on Monday. Evidently, they are giving plenty of respect to a Western Michigan club that won’t be intimidated after USC. The line is now at 7.5 and will be as playable as it gets as I expect that to fall to 7 later on in the week.
Western Michigan was able to head into the fourth quarter tied with the fourth ranked USC Trojans last week. That is proof enough for me that they have returned enough talent from last season’s 13-1 team to hang with Sparty. Furthermore, they were able to have their way in the trenches, rushing for 263 yards. They should find more success on Saturday.
On the flip side, Michigan State will not be able to run the ball with ease this week like they did against the Eagles. This time around, Lewerke will also be facing a solid pass defense. Western Michigan only allowed 200 passing yards per game last season and they return most pieces from last year’s defense.
Considering the information I have gathered, I suggest that bettors take the half point now or buy it up to that if needed later on in the week. If the spread doesn’t fancy your interest, I personally like the under 51.5. I can see both defenses performing well against a one-dimensional offense on both sides of the field.
Trends
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
The Broncos are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
The Under is 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 vs. Big Ten.
The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 games on grass.
The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC.
The Under is 4-1 in the Spartans last 5 non-conference games.
The Under is 5-2 in the Spartans last 7 home games.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our fourth addition of our College Football Throwdown podcast. We are going to review all the results from the previous Saturday’s action, including all the dogs that covered and the out right upsets. We also will be debuting our new session of “Who’s the dummy”, where we will discuss some of the ridiculous coaching decisions and player performances.
