Entering the season, the Big 12 was full of unknowns, and the numerous conference favorites included some of the usual names like Oklahoma, Kansas State, and 2013 Big 12 champion Baylor. Thanks in part to an exciting and unpredictable Week 8, the conference is essentially a tangled up mess, with basically half the conference still in the running.
Last Saturday saw some major shakeups. Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas State, their second loss in three weeks. TCU throttled an Oklahoma State team who was unbeaten yet untested in conference play. West Virginia beat a Baylor team considered to be the front-runner after beating TCU the previous week. Obviously, comparative scoring is out the window at this point. It’s nearly impossible to know what to expect each week.
So, what’s left to make of all this?
With six weeks remaining, there is still plenty left to happen, and more head-scratchers seem likely. Perhaps even a few more riots, and maybe some fans’ televisions tossed out of the window after missed chip-shot field goals. Even so, there is much to be taken into account thus far. Let’s try to make some sense of it, by reevaluating favorites and ranking the teams in order of how they’ll finish in the Big 12.
1 – TCU Horned Frogs – (5-1 overall, 2-1 conference) – Remaining games: Texas Tech, at West Virginia, Kansas State, at Kansas, at Texas, Iowa State – It was a tough call deciding between Kansas State and TCU for the top spot. TCU gets the slight edge because of impressive victories over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Minnesota, with the latter win looking better and better each week. Also, their remaining schedule is not as tough as K-State’s.
Much of the Horned Frogs success has been the result of a major offensive turnaround from 2013, when they ranked 106th nationally by seasons end. Junior quarterback Trevone Boykin has finally settled in and found his niche, and as a result TCU has been lighting the scoreboard up to a tune of 45.2 points per game, good for 5th nationally. And that defense head coach Gary Patterson is known for? It’s still there. Despite inexplicably giving up 61 to Baylor in a narrow loss in which the Horned Frogs also gave up a 21 point lead, their 20.7 points allowed per game is still impressive.
TCU has yet to travel to Morgantown to face a suddenly hot West Virginia team, followed by Kansas State at home, but they should be favored in both. Their 42-9 trouncing of Oklahoma State last week showed a team that is just hitting its stride in all aspects, showing resolve after a heartbreaking (and out of character) high scoring loss. The Horned Frogs control their own fate, and winning out may just be good enough to find themselves in the inaugural playoff, but they will need their victories to be convincing due to the lack of a conference championship game and (unfortunately for them) name recognition.
2 – Kansas State Wildcats – (5-1 overall, 3-0 conference) – Remaining games: Texas, Oklahoma State, at Texas Christian, at West Virginia, Kansas, at Baylor – Field goals have been the story for the Wildcats this season. Kicker Jack Cantele missed three in a 20-14 loss to Auburn in the week three, including a 22-yarder. Oklahoma kicker Michael Hunnicut returned the favor last week in the Wildcat’s 31-30 win in Norman, when he missed a late 19-yarder that would’ve likely won the game.
The Sooners were the first real test of the season for the Wildcats since the Auburn game, and they performed well in a tough environment. Quarterback Jake Waters was his usual efficient self, going 15 of 23 for 225 yards and two touchdowns, without turning the ball over. He added another 51 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Head coach Bill Snyder’s team has been their usual disciplined selves this season, as his squad has the fewest penalties per game in the conference. The downside to their chances however, is their remaining schedule. Kansas State still has to play TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor, all on the road. Although they have certainly demonstrated so far that they are capable of beating anyone, the remaining schedule is simply too tough, and a slip-up seems likely, it just remains a question as of who that may be against. Given recent events, it is anyone’s guess.
3 – Oklahoma Sooners – (5-2 overall, 2-2 conference) – Remaining games: at Iowa State, Baylor, at Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State – With their loss to Kansas State last week, the Sooners have several pundits labeling them as a disappointment. Despite having his most solid performance of the season, quarterback Trevor Knight still made some crucial mistakes, mainly an absent minded pick-six that he threw from his own endzone.
The defense couldn’t make stops when it needed to, and the Sooners proved once again that they really don’t have any reliable receivers other than Sterling Shepard. Something to not be overlooked however is the fact that Oklahoma’s two losses have come by a combined five points. The Sooners have on paper what many regard as the easiest remaining schedule, with their biggest game being the matchup with Baylor at home, where the Sooners will look for revenge after a 41-12 thrashing in Waco in 2013. Even though the Sooners have two conference losses, there are plenty of reasons to assume that they will not be alone in that fact when the conference season comes to an end. Any tiebreaker scenario will be very interesting to see.
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4 – Baylor Bears – (6-1 overall, 3-1 conference) – Remaining games: Kansas, at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State – The Bears certainly are an interesting bunch. Ranked 1st nationally in points per game with an even 49, Baylor has little trouble driving down the field on anyone. Even though they amassed 178 points against three absolutely dreadful non-conference foes, the Bears have backed that up with 165 points in four conference games, for an average of 41.2. Star receiver Antwan Goodley has racked up 27 receptions, 473 yards, and four touchdowns in just those conference games alone after sitting out the Bears non-conference schedule.
Their defense has limited foes to an average of 23 points per game. While Baylor was fortunate to escape with the win over TCU, but their luck ran out in a sloppy effort against West Virginia last week. The Bears defense hasn’t fared too well in Big 12 play, and they still have games to come against Oklahoma and Kansas State. Baylor does have one major thing in their favor however, and that is the fact that the Nov. 8 showdown against Oklahoma is their lone road game left. If they can manage a win in Norman, their odds of winning out look fairly good. The playoff is most likely out of the scenario for them, as the committee will surely hold their weak non-conference schedule and lack of a conference championship game against them.
5 – West Virginia Mountaineers – (5-2 overall, 3-1 conference) – Remaining games: at Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, at Texas, Kansas State, at Iowa State – After a 41-27 win over Baylor last week, the Mountaineers are suddenly regarded by many as yet another challenger for the conference crown. With an improved defense, and quarterback Clint Trickett’s unstoppable connection with receiver Kevin White producing 1,020 yards and seven touchdowns in just seven games, its understandable why. The Baylor win, though impressive, is marred by one glaring statistic however, and that is the Bears being called for an inexcusable 18 penalties for 215 yards. Although the Mountaineers had plenty of their own (14 for 138 yards,) Baylor’s were far more costly, with five pass interference calls occurring on three West Virginia drives that resulted in 17 points.
Throw in a 12-point loss to Oklahoma at home, and a very narrow 37-34 win over a bad Texas Tech team, and suddenly the Mountaineers seem a little overhyped. Vegas oddsmakers agree, as they are an underdog heading into this Saturday’s game in Stillwater against a slumping Oklahoma State. Although greatly improved from last season, and a surprise to many, the Mountaineers still have games against TCU and Kansas State looming, as well as a battle with a dangerous and steadily improving Texas team.
6 – Oklahoma State – (5-2 overall, 3-1) – Remaining games: West Virginia, at Kansas State, Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma – The Cowboys 3-0 conference start turned out to be fools gold when they were steamrolled by TCU 42-9. Head coach Mike Gundy’s team was exposed on nearly every level, beginning with their offensive line. Quarterback Daxx Garman was under pressure all day, and showed it with the worst outing of his career. The Cowboys managed only 258 yards against the Horned Frogs while giving up 676, including several big plays.
Garman had zero passing yards in the second half, and the defense had no answer for Trevone Boykin. Despite having a very deep receiving corps, the Cowboys usual offensive prowess is non-existent this season, mainly due to having no pass protection or run blocking. Even worse, Oklahoma State has the toughest remaining schedule of any Big 12 team. Forget challenging for a conference title, the Cowboys will have a hard enough time becoming bowl eligible, despite a 5-1 start. Their best chances will come against West Virginia and Texas, although stranger things have happened this season.
7 – Texas Longhorns – (3-4 overall, 2-2 conference) – Remaining games: at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, Texas Christian – Despite a rough last few years, it is still strange to see Texas ranked this low. Fortunately for them, they appear to be finding their footing mid-season. After a lopsided loss to BYU in the second week of the season, the Longhorns have competed or won outright in every game since. They held a superior Baylor team on the ropes for most of the game, and followed that with a narrow loss to Oklahoma, despite outgaining the Sooners by 250 yards and outscoring their offense 26-17. A big reason for their sudden resurgence is the play of sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes, who followed a breakout game against Oklahoma with a game winning drive against Iowa State last week. The Longhorns are getting better every week, as they seemed to have found an offense that can compliment the play of a very good defensive unit. Looming games against Kansas State, West Virginia, and TCU will most certainly keep them out of the bowl picture this season, but hopes are on the rise in Austin for new head coach Charlie Strong and company.
8 – Texas Tech Red Raiders – (3-4 overall, 1-3 conference) – Remaining games: at Texas Christian, Texas, Oklahoma, at Iowa State, Baylor – It’s been a tough year for head coach Kliff Kingsbury in his second season at the helm. The Red Raiders finally overcame an eight game conference losing streak against a terrible Kansas squad last week, but that’s nothing to brag about. Texas Tech ranks 10th nationally in passing yards with 330.4 per game, but that is negated, (well, any positive is negated) by the fact that they rank 116th in points allowed, giving up 36.9 per contest. That is not going to cut it in this league, or any league for that matter. Even if the Red Raiders are able to get past Iowa State and Texas, they’d still have to find a way to win against Baylor, Oklahoma, or TCU to become bowl eligible. Even in this wild year, that’s probably not happening.
9 – Iowa State Cyclones – (2-5 overall, 0-4 conference) – Remaining games: Oklahoma, at Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, at Texas Christian – Head coach Paul Rhodes has yet again managed to field a losing team that is always taken rather seriously by opponents, and for good reason. The Cyclones came up short 45-48 to Texas last week, and the only winnable games left for them come against Kansas and Texas Tech, before having the honor of closing the season against TCU. It’s back to the drawing board again for the Cyclones this offseason.
10 – Kansas Jayhawks – (2-5 overall, 0-4 conference) – Remaining games: at Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Christian, at Oklahoma, at Kansas State – In yet another throwaway year for the Jayhawks, bright spots are hard to find, but there are some. Aside from their 41-3 loss to Duke early in the season, Kansas has yet to really be blown out since, and came very close to upsetting Oklahoma State. Linebacker Ben Heeney has been on a tear this season, highlighted by his 21 tackle performance against Texas Tech last week, in which he also had an interception. Kansas is sure to be a win for every team left on their schedule, but don’t expect each one to be pretty. The only other area of interest for the Jayhawks is the question of who out there is actually willing to take over for them in the 2015 season and beyond.
