Angelique Kerber surprised a lot of people at the 2016 Australian Open. Not many figured she’d have a reasonable chance to win it all with so many good players in form, but she surprised all of us – including Serena Williams. Kerber was a massive underdog in the final against the top player in the world yet she held her emotions in check and ended up winning her first career grand slam. While she’s still basking in her glory, we’re going to rain on her parade a little bit.
Many feel like this is a change of course for the 28-year-old German and that she will win another big tournament in 2016. However, we’re banking on her reverting back to her old self. Here are four reasons to think this was her last grand slam win of the 2016 calendar year.
1. Garbine Muguruza, Simona Halep, and Victoria Azarenka – at least one of them will get better, if not two
One of the main difficulties facing Angelique Kerber at the remaining Grand Slam events this year – the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open – is that other top players will be gunning for her. Kerber can no longer play the underdog card, or at the very least, if she’s an underdog at the betting window, she still won’t be able to sneak up on opponents the way she did at the Australian Open. It’s going to be a case in which some opponents might fail, but others are going to make adjustments while also playing better. Victoria Azarenka is the foremost example here. She’s won two major titles and has played only one bad match this season – the one she lost to Kerber in Melbourne in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. It’s likely that Azarenka will get better. It’s possible that Simona Halep will get better. It’s possible that Azrenka and Halep will both improve. Wimbledon finalist Garbine Muguruza might learn how to compete better. Other players with a lot of talent could make the next step Kerber did a week ago. The field is going to get stronger, not weaker, as a result of what Kerber did. In that way, Kerber will become a victim of her own success.
2. Serena Williams In General
This is a clear-cut reason to bet against Kerber. If the German does make the final or semifinal of another tournament, and if Serena is there, which she might easily be, you will see a situation in which Serena is very motivated and very focused. Serena did not use good tactics in the Australian Open final. She did not come in on good approach shots. She didn’t execute a wise game plan, and what she tried to execute was not very effective in the first place – her shots were deficient, regardless of the tactics or the intent behind them. Serena will play better against Kerber if she gets another look at the trophy in a Grand Slam event.
3. Maria Sharapova at the French Open
One of the more tournament-specific keys is this one. Sharapova has become an excellent clay-court player later in her career. If Kerber meets Sharapova at any point in the French Open, it will be hard for the German to beat her more celebrated Russian counterpart. Sharapova defends so well on clay that she can wait out Kerber and get errors from the German’s racquet.
4. Angelique Kerber and the recent pattern of major breakthroughs
This is not just a Kerber-specific point, but a point about other players who made a major final for the first time. Not only do they fail to win another Grand Slam event the next year, they fail to win another one, period. Muguruza, Halep, Lucie Safarova, Eugenie Bouchard, Dominika Cibulkova, Roberta Vinci – all players who have made a first career major final in recent years – have not made a second appearance in a major final. It seems that a number of the women are able to string it together for a tournament but not much longer. The odds are against Kerber to do the same.
