With the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots winning as big favorites, and the Baltimore Ravens hanging on to beat the Cleveland Browns, the AFC playoff picture is set. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh Steelers fans, the postseason won’t include them. However, six other teams — three of which didn’t make the playoffs last year — will now have a shot. Let’s take a closer look at the AFC Wild Card Weekend matchups and make some picks:
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Odds: Ravens -3
The 12-4 Los Angeles Chargers will be on the road at the 10-6 Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. While it looks a bit odd because of the records, the reality is that the Ravens won their division (AFC North), while the Chargers placed second in theirs (AFC West).
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Wild Card Betting
The Ravens come into the playoffs red hot right now as they won six of their last seven games to qualify. An injury to quarterback Joe Flacco paved the way for a switch to rookie Lamar Jackson, who finished the season 6-1 as the starter. The Chargers saw first-hand what Jackson and the Ravens can do in Week 16 when the Ravens won 22-10 in Los Angeles. The question is what can the Chargers do different this time around?
The Chargers will have to find a way to stop the run as they coughed up 159 rushing yards in that contest, along with a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. That allowed the Ravens to have an edge in time of possession, keep the Chargers potent offense on the sidelines and keep them out of rhythm.
The Chargers also had three turnovers and 69 yards in penalties, so there is a lot they can clean up. Even with all of that, they had the ball down six points in the fourth quarter. However, that was at home. Now the Chargers are in Baltimore.
The Ravens were a healthy 6-2 at home this season and their defense allowed just 16.3 points at home. The key here will be the run defense. If they hold the Chargers to just 51 yards on the ground like they did in the first meeting, Los Angeles will have a tough time pulling out a win. The Ravens allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season — fourth-best in the NFL — while the Chargers allowed 4.4 (13th). That figures to be the difference.
Look for Rivers to have a much better game this time around and the Chargers defense to make adjustments to force Jackson to be more of a passer. We saw the Cleveland Browns find some answers in the second half of Week 17, so the Chargers will look at that film and try to mimic what was working. If that happens, the Chargers could spring the ‘upset’.
Pick: Chargers +3
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Odds: Texans -2.5
The Texans won the AFC South with 11 wins and will host their rivals from Indianapolis, who finished with 10 wins. The Texans won the first meeting, 37-34, at Indy and lost the second, 24-21, at home. However, the second matchup is likely far more indicative of what this playoff game will be like.
In the first meeting, the Texans were 0-3 and the Colts were 1-2. The Colts finished the year winning nine of their final 10 games and are a team nobody wants to see right now. Andrew Luck is playing at an MVP level, throwing 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the last 10 weeks, and the defense — though they don’t get much attention — is very underrated. The Colts finished the year sixth in yards per carry allowed (3.8) and were 13th in opponent points per game (21.8). Their defense has allowed just 14.2 points per game over their last five contests.
As for the Texans, they definitely turned their season around from their 0-3 start but many people question how much of a contender they actually are. Most of their wins came against teams with a losing record and they are just 2-2 in their last four games. They did churn out 134 yards rushing in Week 17, but 66 of those were quarterback Deshaun Watson. Prior to that, the Texans had been dead-last in the NFL in rushing yards per game in December. Worse yet, the Texans have given up an NFL-high 62 sacks this season. If they can’t run the ball and are forced to be a one-dimensional passing offense, this is going to be an uphill battle.
The Colts are the hotter team right now, their defense is playing better and they have more balance. While road playoff games are always tricky, the Colts know how to beat this team.
Pick: Colts +2.5
