The Minnesota Wild had a great year. They led the Central Division for most of it, but the Blackhawks simply got too hot to handle and they took the title away yet again. But Minnesota still has a lot to hang their hat on.
Their first season under Bruce Boudreau, Regular Season Wizard, was a success. Sure, they hit some bumps in the road in the second half, but they still wound up with 106 points, 49 wins and the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +58. That marker is second in the league behind only the Washington Capitals.
They hold home-ice advantage over the St. Louis Blues, who despite shipping out star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and firing their head coach Ken Hitchcock, still got hot enough to finish third in the Central with 99 points. In fact they went 16-3-2 since the NHL Trade Deadline. How wild is that? (Ha! Wild. I crack myself up.)
Minnesota is a -143 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Wild.
Firstly, St. Louis deserves a lot of credit. Their arsenal took a hit with the departure of Shattenkirk, but they just kept on winning. And kept on scoring. In fact, they averaged 3.1 goals-for in their final 20 games of the season. That’s impressive.
Vladimir Tarasenko took a while to get going, which he would blame on Hithcock. But he came alive in the second half, finishing with 39 goals and 75 points. Jaden Schwartz got hot down the stretch as well, finishing up with 55 points.
But the fact is they are going up against the second-best offense in the NHL. Bruce Boudreau knows how to get the most out of his players for 82 games. It’s the games beyond the final one of the regular season that give Brucey the most trouble. Whether it be Washington, Anaheim or now Minnesota, he knows how to take high-profile teams loaded with stars and weapons and make them a regular-season powerhouse.
The emergence of Mikael Granlund is one of the best stories to come out of this year for Minnesota. Granlund led the team with 69 points, but more importantly got national acclaim for being a dominant player. This was his breakout year, and he’s flown under the radar for too long.
But any storyline generated about the Minnesota Wild offense would have to be centered around Eric Staal. Many wrote off Staal after his abysmal tenure in New York at the end of last season. With the Hurricanes being a losing franchise for so long, his scoring on a decline and a quick five-game exit for the Rangers, many thought that Staal might be done at age 31. But he has rewritten those narratives and had himself his best season since 2011-2012. He finished with 28 goals and 65 points on the year, a key cog in the Wild machine.
Defense: advantage Blues.
St. Louis held their opponents to one goal or fewer 10 times in their final 20 games, with two shutouts mixed in. That is about as stingy as a defense can be. Mike Yeo is a conservative coach, which the Minnesota Wild should be very familiar with seeing as Yeo was fired by the Wild midway through last season. He plays a defensive style of hockey that focuses on limiting chances, even if it means less quantity for his own team.
The Wild only had four games in their final 21 in which they allowed one or fewer. They went ice-cold in March before finding their footing and winning their final four games of the regular season.
Systemically, I prefer Minnesota’s approach. Assistant coach Scott Stevens deserves much of the credit. He came into Minnesota and reformed their approach: allowing a higher quantity of shots is okay so long as the goaltender has clear sight of those chances. More shots of a lower percentage are preferable to fewer shots of a higher percentage. This, in the long run, is a fine strategy.
Problems arise, however, when the goaltenders get cold and start allowing softies. The Wild ran into some goalie issues down the line, and they were bleeding an uncharacteristically high number of goals.
But what really hurts Minnesota, as is the case with many teams this time of year, is the health of their star defenseman, Jared Spurgeon. Spurgeon missed the last two games of the season with a lower-body injury. Granted, this was likely a precaution, but it still is a bit foreboding.
10. Open net ahead of you, but the puck is floating up by your face – kind of a problem, right? Not for Jared Spurgeon. #mnwild #SixSnipes pic.twitter.com/d16YNgDlsq
— Shane O'Donnell (@shane1342o) April 9, 2017
The Blues are clicking defensively, and it’s a complete effort up and down the lineup. Even though the Wild have better cumulative numbers, I give the edge to St. Louis.
Special teams: advantage Blues.
The powerplay battle is pretty even. The Blues are eighth in the league at 21.3%, the Wild are ninth at 21.0%. The Blues got 11 more chances and scored on three of them. It’s a wash.
The penalty kill is where things get a bit clearer. St. Louis is third in the league with an 84.8% kill rate, while Minnesota is eighth at 82.9%. Still great numbers, but the Blues hold the edge.
Things are pretty much dead even in this department. In their five head-to-head matchups, the Blues scored one powerplay goal on 11 attempts, while the Wild scored one on 13.
It’s a wash.
Goaltending: advantage Wild.
Devan Dubnyk had a career year this season. He will likely get some Vezina consideration, but ultimately lose to Sergei Bobrovsky. His work with Steve Valiquette has changed Dubnyk for the better, and he is aided by Scott Stevens’ defensive system.
Dubnyk finished with 40 wins, a 2.25 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage. He also had five shutouts.
Jake Allen will be handed the reigns for the postseason. He made a few cameo appearances last year in the Western Conference Final, but now, he’s the definitive number one starter. But even as the starter, he was hit-and-miss. He got off to a hot start, especially at home.
But Dubnyk gets the edge. Who knows, if things go south, we may see Carter Hutton. You never know with St. Louis this time of year.
Bold Predictions:
1) Carter Hutton will see ice time one way or another.
2) Games in St. Louis will be guaranteed under hits.
3) Every game will be separated by one goal.
Prediction: Wild in 6.
