The Kansas State Wildcats travel south to Fort worth to play the TCU Horned Frogs in a BIG-12 match-up on Saturday, December 3rd. The contest is slated to begin at High Noon ET and can be seen on the FOX Sports 1 Network. As of this article, the Horned Frogs are a -4.5 favorite and the game’s total sits at 52.5.
Kansas State and TCU are already bowl-eligible. This week in Fort Worth is about adding an exclamation point to the regular season and building momentum heading into the postseason portion of the schedule.
Kansas State (7-4):
The Wildcats have taken back-to-back games and four of their last five, including Bill Snyder’s 200th career win last Saturday over in-state rival Kansas. Quarterback Jesse Ertz only passed for 59 yards on four completions and ran for another 99 before he exited the game with a leg injury. In 2016, Ertz has thrown for just over 1,400 yards with seven touchdowns and four picks.
The Wildcats look to run the ball first, when they do quarterback Jesse Ertz totes the rock from under-center. Throughout the season, Ertz has scampered for 775 yards on 140 carries and has reached the back of the end zone nine more times. Running back Charles Jones is running the ball when Ertz is handing it off. Jones also has 562 yards and two scores.
The passing game isn’t the Wildcats first option but when they do pass, three receivers pitch in to move the chains for coach Snyder. The trio has gathered in 97 balls for just under 1,200 yards and six touchdown catches.
Kansas State’s strength is on the defensive side of the football. The unit tops the conference in total defense. They are led by defensive end Jordan Willis who leads the BIG-12 in sacks with 11. The Wildcats are also ranked 11th in the nation against the run, allowing only 110.9 yards a contest.
TCU (6-5):
TCU, a big disappointment for most of the year, went 2-1 last month, beating Baylor and Texas on the road. Oddly enough, the Horned Frogs biggest struggles this season have come at home. TCU is just 2-4 and has lost three in a games row.
A huge reason that TCU hasn’t been able to patch together more wins than loses, is the inconsistent play of their quarterback Kenny Hill. At times, Hill looks like a superstar by making plays with his feet as well as his arms. Other times the signal-caller looks confused and makes bad decisions with the rock. All totaled, Hill has over 3,000 yards passing with 15 scores and 13 picks.
The Horned Frogs like to throw the ball around the field as their first option on offense, but when they run they turn to tail back Kyle Hicks. Hicks has scampered for 894 yards on 171 attempts and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Kenny Hill also pitches in on the running game, running for over 487 yards and nine scores.
Four Horned Frog wide receivers have caught the lion share of Kenny Hills passes this season. Together, they have brought in over 130 passes for almost 2,000 yards and 13 trips to pay-dirt. Taj Williams leads this posse with 38 catches for 698 yards and five touchdowns.
Uncharacteristically, the TCU defense has struggled to stop anybody throughout their 2016 campaign. The front seven allows 168 yards per game rushing, ranking 62nd in the nation. The back half is even worse, giving way to over 253 yards per game (93rd).
Trends and Notes:
The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
The Over is 4-0 in the Wildcats last 4 games overall.
The Under is 5-1 in the Horned Frogs last 6 games overall.
Game Prediction:
This is truly a tossup game, so go with the home team, right? Not on Saturday. The Horned Frogs have been horrible at Amon G. Carter the last three games that conventional wisdom goes out the window.
The Wildcats will keep it basic over the ground with Zach Ertz, splicing in an occasional downfield pass to Dominique Heath and Byron Pringle on play-action. Regardless of who fills out the TCU backfield, they’ll struggle to earn chunk yards against that fundamentally sound K-State defense.
Take the Kansas State Wildcats to cover the 4.5 points and check in on this game when the conference title games are in commercial break.
