The Kansas State Wildcats head east to face the West Virginia Mountaineers in a Big-12 showdown in Morgantown. The contest is slated to begin on Saturday, October 1st at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be shown on the ESPNU channel. West Virginia is a -3.5 point favorite and the total for the game is at 54.
West Virginia has gotten past two known opponents already in 2016. They won a grudge match in their opener against Missouri and beat the BYU Cougars last week. The Wildcats battled the Stanford Cardinals to the end, but came up a little short in their opener. Then, Kansas State made quick work Florida Atlantic and Southwest Missouri State.
Kansas State (2-1):
The Wildcats could be described as an offensively challenged squad after three games into the 2016 college football season. Even their starting quarterback is an average contributor at best.
Jesse Ertz likes to pass and run the football to move the chains on Saturdays. He has completed only 31 passes for 418 yards and four scores. The Wildcat signal-caller has one pick on the year. He also has ran the pigskin for almost 150 yards on 25 attempts for another touchdown.
Running back Charles Jones is the Wildcats first option out of the back field. He has 21 carries for a little over 100 yards and one touchdown. Four other runners carry the ball, including full back Winston Dimel. Dimel has a team-high six trips to the end zone this season.
Five different receivers all share the passes thrown by Zach Ertz. Together, they have totaled 30 catches for a little over 375 yards and three touchdowns. Furthermore, all of the wide outs are solid blockers that contribute to the Wildcat’s running attack.
The Kansas State defense is the teams overwhelming strong suit. The Wildcat defense has been solid. They frustrated Stanford in their opener and went on to completely shut-down their two lesser opponents. Coming into this game, they rank number one in the nation in total defense. Kansas State has allowed only 33 points in the three games they have participated in.
West Virginia (3-0):
The Mountaineers love to spread teams out and throw the ball around, but keep teams honest with a two-back tandem in the back field. When it’s time to move the ball through the air, quarterback Skylar Howard is the man. Howard has completed almost 75 passes for almost 1,000 yards and six touchdowns with three picks.
Running backs Justin Crawford and Rushel Shell have held up their end of the deal. The two have amassed 85 carries for almost 450 yards and four trips to the back of the end zone. Skylar Howard also contributes. He has 26 rushes for over 100 yards and a score.
Three talented players handle the wide receiver duties for the Mountaineers. They are led by Shelton Gibson. The speedster has nabbed 16 balls for over 350 yards with a gaudy 22.1 yards a catch average. As a unit, they also have collected 45 balls for almost 800 yards and five touchdowns.
West Virginia’s Achilles heal has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers lost eight players from last years productive squad and it’s showing in 2016. They are 105th in the nation against the run, allowing over 215 yards a contest. Unfortunately, they’re not much better defending the pass. West Virginia also ranks 81st, giving way to almost 250 yards a game.
Trends and Notes:
The Wildcats are 41-17-1 ATS in their last 59 conference games.
The Over is 6-2 in the Wildcats last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Mountaineers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 conference games.
The Under is 18-7 in the Mountaineers last 25 games overall.
Game Prediction:
This match-up is truly a contrast in styles. West Virginia likes to mix it up and open it up offensively, while the Wildcats like to play the field position game. The Mountaineers defense has been generous through their first three games and the Kansas State D is as stingy a group as it gets.
West Virginia also has the luxury of playing at home, where the loud and raucous environment won’t make it any easier on an anemic Wildcat offense. The Kansas state defense won’t have that problem, and have already seen one of the best athletes in the country in Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.
Taking a team that struggles to score to cover on the road is risky, but on the strength of Kansas State’s defense it’s the best option. Take full advantage of the 3.5, milking that half point for all it’s worth. If you catch it late, and the lines down to three, play the under 54.
