College basketball only gets the sports spotlight for a short month — you know which one — and nowhere will that spotlight shine brighter than on the Duke Blue Devils, who received the No. 1 overall seed for this year’s NCAA tournament, which begins in earnest on Thursday.
Duke boasts three potential top-5 NBA Draft picks: R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and of course, college basketball’s biggest star, Zion Williamson. The high-flying, super-strong pogo stick is must-see TV for basketball fans, and he’s the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. His return from injury in the ACC Tournament was dramatic and wildly successful.
Given all that talent, plus the presence of Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, it’s no wonder that Duke is the heavy betting favorite to win the NCAA tournament at +225.
But today, we look at a little more of a safe proposition: Will Duke win the East Regional and make the Final Four?
East Regional odds
Duke is the heavy favorite, but there is a good No. 2 seed with a championship pedigree in Michigan State and an unpredictable No. 3 seed in LSU, which has tons of talent but suspended coach Will Wade after he was reportedly caught on a wiretap discussing payment for players. Nonetheless, don’t expect to find great odds betting on the Blue Devils.
No. 1 Duke -170
No. 2 Michigan State +350
No. 3 LSU +1200
No. 4 Virginia Tech +1200
No. 7 Louisville +1800
No. 5 Mississippi State +2200
No. 6 Maryland +2500
No. 11 Belmont +5000
No. 9 Central Florida +5000
No. 8 Virginia Commonwealth +5000
No. 10 Minnesota +6000
No. 14 Yale +8000
No. 13 St. Louis +10000
No. 11 Temple +10000
No. 12 Liberty +12500
No. 15 Bradley +17500
No. 16 North Carolina Central +25000
No. 16 North Dakota State+25000
Duke’s season thus far
Ranked No. 4 to start the year, the baby Blue Devils, with their army of talented freshmen, quickly showed their ceiling was much, much higher than that. They blitzed No. 2 Kentucky 118-84 in their season opener in Chicago and quickly rose to No. 1. That lasted until the finals of the Maui Invitational, where Duke beat San Diego State and Auburn (an eventual No. 5 seed) before Gonzaga stopped any talk of the Blue Devils going unbeaten with a thrilling 89-87 victory in the championship game.
But Duke kept on rolling after that, going unbeaten in December with a win over Texas Tech (an eventual No. 3 seed) and running its record to 14-1 and back to No. 1 until the Blue Devils’ season took its first left turn.
Point guard Tre Jones was out with a shoulder injury and Reddish missed the game with flu-like symptoms when Duke battled Syracuse on Big Monday. The Orange made 11 3-pointers and slowed Williamson and the Blue Devils just enough to win 95-91 in overtime.
Duke rebounded nicely with a nine-game winning streak, including two wins against Virginia (an eventual No. 1 seed that lost only three games all season).
That’s when things got hairy again. Williamson famously injured his knee (and exploded his shoe) in the first minute of Duke’s game on Feb. 20 against North Carolina. The Tar Heels (an eventual No. 1 seed) blew out the Blue Devils, then beat them again to end the regular season. In between, Duke lost a fifth game to Virginia Tech and nearly lost at home before surviving 71-70 against ACC bottom-feeder Wake Forest.
But Williamson returned in the ACC tournament, went 13-for-13 from the field in his first game back and led the Blue Devils to three straight victories, including a revenge win against North Carolina in the semifinals. Duke lost just two games with Williamson in the lineup, and in one of those two other key players were missing. The full-strength Blue Devils lost only the Maui game to Gonzaga.
Duke’s potential path
The Blue Devils will open with a game against either North Carolina Central or North Dakota State. NDSU is favored in Wednesday’s First Four game in Dayton, Ohio, but no matter who wins, Duke will be more than a 20-point favorite. Anything can happen in March Madness, but you can safely pencil the Blue Devils into the round of 32.
The second-round matchup with either No. 8 VCU or No. 9 UCF will bring more challenges — either the hyperactive style of the Rams or the size and plodding pace of 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall and the Knights — but Duke has answers for both styles. The Blue Devils are an overwhelming favorite to reach the tournament’s second weekend.
That would take Duke to Washington, D.C., for the regional semifinals. Potential opponents there include No. 4 Virginia Tech and No. 5 Mississippi State, or it could be an upstart like No. 12 Liberty or No. 13 St. Louis. None of those teams are particularly scary, but remember, Virginia Tech did beat a (Zion-less) Duke team in late February.
The regional final is where Duke’s road to the Final Four could hit a real roadblock. Most are anticipating an Elite Eight game against Michigan State that could be an instant classic. If the Blue Devils and Spartans both get this far — no guarantee in March Madness — Duke will have to beat another team most consider to be one of the five or six best in America.
Calculating the odds
Duke certainly has the pedigree to be considered the heavy East Regional favorite, but how do the numbers see it?
The 538 prediction model has Duke at 72 percent to reach the regional final and 52 percent to reach the Final Four (and, for the record, a 19 percent chance to cut down the nets in Minneapolis after the national championship).
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is slightly less bullish on the Blue Devils, giving them a 71.1 percent chance to reach the Elite 8 and a 49.7 percent chance to go to the Final Four (and a 14.7 percent chance to win it all).
Ken Pomeroy, master of college basketball’s best-known efficiency rankings, hasn’t yet published a predictive model for the tournament, but according to his rankings, Duke would be less than a one-point favorite to beat Michigan State in a potential regional final. Given that there’s not a 100 percent chance either team makes it that far, it’s safe to say he doesn’t see much better than a 50-50 chance for the Blue Devils to win the region, either.
Prediction
Duke is a well-deserved better-than-even-money favorite to win the East Regional. They have the most talent, a Hall of Fame coach and a friendly draw.
However, at most sportsbooks, you’ll be paying in the neighborhood of -170 to pick Duke to win the region. There’s very little value at that number, and it’s possible the odds will go up even further as Duke is a very well-known team and the public could hammer money on the Blue Devils.
If you’re convinced no one in the East Regional can stop the Zion-and-Duke machine, there are worse bets to make. But if you’re looking for value in the NCAA tournament futures market, look elsewhere.
