Miami certainly looked like a team of destiny after their miracle win over the Patriots. Then the Vikings smacked them around and reminded us just how bad they’re capable of looking. That said, the Dolphins do still have a slim chance of making the playoffs if things break their way.
Will Miami Dolphins qualify for 2018-19 NFL Playoffs?
Yes +1000
No -4500
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: at 7-7, the Dolphins need to win both of their final two games (vs. Jacksonville, at Buffalo). They’re four-point favorites against the Jaguars and could very well be favored against the Bills, so this is doable.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 16 Odds
As for the help they need, we’ll focus on matchups featuring the Patriots, Titans, Colts and Ravens.
The simplest path (but perhaps the least likely) is the Patriots losing their final two games. If both teams finish 9-7, the Dolphins will win the AFC East due to a better win percentage in division games. Unfortunately for Miami, the Patriots end the season with home games against the Bills and Jets. They’re 13-point favorites this week and will likely be massive favorites again next week. It’s difficult to imagine the Patriots losing either of those games, let alone both.
As for a Wild Card spot, the fifth seed is out as it will go the loser of the AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Chiefs. The sixth seed is up for grabs, and that is where the Dolphins will probably find themselves if they make it to the postseason.
If you want this to happen, first you’ll need either the Titans to lose to the Redskins as 10-point home favorites, or the Colts to lose to the Giants as nine-point home favorites. Both upsets would be nice, but just one would keep the Dolphins alive.
The Dolphins also need the Ravens to lose once, either on the road against the Chargers this week, or at home against Cleveland next week. It doesn’t matter as long as the Ravens get to 9-7.
As surprising as it may be, if the Dolphins finish 9-7 and the other teams competing for the sixth seed (Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee) also finish 9-7, the Dolphins win tiebreakers over all of them. The details are fairly coma-inducing, so we’ll keep it to this: the Dolphins would either have a better win percentage in conference games or benefit from their Week 1 win over the Titans.
Remember when we said either the Titans or Colts need to lose in Week 16, but preferably both? That’s because they play each other in Week 17. If they both lose in Week 16 and the Dolphins win out, their game is essentially meaningless. The final spot would go to Miami or Baltimore, depending on whether the Ravens suffered their aforementioned necessary loss. If only one of the Colts or Titans win in Week 16, you’ll want the other team to win in Week 17. Again, it’s all about both of them finishing 9-7. If both teams win in Week 16, Miami is out. Even if they tied in Week 17, their 9-6-1 records would surpass Miami and the final spot would go to Baltimore or Indianapolis (the Titans would be eliminated since they lost to the Colts in Week 11).
But there’s one final problem, just to make this a little more difficult. There’s one specific scenario in which the Colts, Dolphins and Titans all finish 9-7 and the Dolphins miss the playoffs. Here’s what would have to happen:
The Ravens lose both of their final games, finishing 8-8 OR become AFC North Champions at any record
The Titans beat the Redskins in Week 16.
The Colts lose to the Giants in Week 16.
The Colts beat the Titans in Week 17.
In that case, all three teams are 9-7 but the Colts would be 2-0 against the Titans and 1-0 against the Dolphins, so they’d get the final spot. But if the Ravens win once and all four teams are 9-7, the tiebreaker goes to winning percentage in conference games, which means the Dolphins are playoff-bound. Unless, of course, the Steelers lose out and the Ravens become AFC North champions. Then they would obviously be removed from Wild Card consideration and the sixth seed would go to the Colts for the same reasons listed above. Thrilling stuff!
Anyway, it’s likely a moot point because the Colts and Titans are heavy favorites this weekend. The Giants have nothing to play for and may shut Odell Beckham down. The Redskins are still alive, but do you really want to hang your hopes on Josh Johnson leading perhaps the most banged up team in the league?
It’s not inconceivable, so a bet at +1000 is on the table. But, like all +1000 bets, it’s a huge longshot. Go with “no” or, better yet, avoid this altogether unless you can find better odds. Considering Football Outsiders gives the Dolphins a four percent chance of making it, “yes” would be worth a shot at around +2000. Unfortunately, not even the Browns are getting that and they practically need a miracle. There are better bets to be made.
