The Wisconsin Badgers (9-8) visit the Northwestern Wildcats (14-3) in what should be a low-scoring game. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 12 and will air on BTN.
The Wildcats had no trouble getting past Minnesota 77-52 on Saturday. Aaron Falzon was the game’s high scorer with 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting. The Badgers are coming off a tough 63-60 loss to Maryland on Saturday. Wisconsin lost despite the best efforts of Ethan Happ, who recorded his sixth double-double of the season with 16 points and 11 rebounds.
Half-court execution will be at a premium as Northwestern ranks 317th in the nation in possessions per game (66.0 possessions per game), while Wisconsin is 341st (64.7).
Northwestern is favored by a slight two-point margin in its matchup against Wisconsin. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 127 points. The Wildcats look to build on their records of 14-3 Straight Up (SU) and 6-6-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Wildcats are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting a superb .473 from the field. Northwestern is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.73. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Northwestern’s stingy defense. The Wildcats are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 64.1 points per game. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Wildcats, who allow a field goal percentage of only .387.
As for their opponent, the Badgers have records of 6-11 ATS and 9-8 SU. The Badgers are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 13.2 offensive rebounds per game. The Badgers are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 63.8 points allowed per game. Don’t expect Wisconsin to give away the ball much on offense, where its 11.4 turnovers per game ranks 43rd in the country.
Northwestern and Wisconsin meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Wisconsin won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record over their most recent meetings to 9-1. Additionally, Wisconsin leads the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. In these last five matchups, Wisconsin held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times, with Northwestern controlling all three of these areas once.
Predictions: SU Winner – NW, ATS Winner – NW, O/U – Over
Notes
Northwestern is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern’s last 5 games.
Northwestern is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home.
Northwestern is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Wisconsin.
Northwestern is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Wisconsin.
Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wisconsin.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Northwestern’s last 9 games when playing at home against Wisconsin.
Northwestern averages 77.2 points per game, placing the team just 109th in the nation. Wisconsin ranks 27th in points allowed, giving up 63.8 points per game.
Northwestern scores just 77.2 points per home game (ranked 188th). Wisconsin ranks 15th in points allowed on the road, giving up 65.2 points.
Northwestern won its last game by a 25-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, Wisconsin is 3-0. Northwestern is 7-0 in blowouts this season.
Ranked 22nd, the Northwestern Wildcats have an offensive rating of 116.9. The Wisconsin Badgers rank 101st with a defensive rating of just 98.0.
The Northwestern Wildcats average 66.0 possessions and 1.169 points per possession in games this season. The Wisconsin Badgers average fewer possessions with 64.7, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.062.
The Wisconsin Badgers average an effective field goal percentage of 47.1% this season. The Northwestern Wildcats have split their games this season (3-3) when opponents have an eFG% of 47.1% or greater.
On average, the Northwestern Wildcats attempt 25.0 three point field goals per game and the Wisconsin Badgers attempt 17.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Northwestern has a fantastic 13-3 record, while Wisconsin is 2-3.
The Northwestern Wildcats rank seventh with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.73, while the Wisconsin Badgers rank outside the top 100 (203rd) with an A/TO of 1.00.
Northwestern, the 92nd-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 38.8 rebounds per game. Wisconsin does worse, ranked 114th with 38.2.
Wisconsin makes an average of 5.5 steals per game. Northwestern has a solid 5-3 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
