It figures to be a low-scoring affair as the Wisconsin Badgers (20-10) travel to Purdue to play the No. 15-ranked Boilermakers (23-7). The game starts at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 6 and will air on BTN.
The Boilermakers won big over Nebraska 81-62 the last time they played. A.J. Hammons played well, contributing 16 points, six rebounds, and three blocks for the Boilermakers. The Badgers are coming off a 62-49 win over Minnesota in their last outing. Bronson Koenig led the team in scoring with 14 points on 5-for-7 shooting.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength, as the high-octane offense of Purdue (31st in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 114.2) takes on the stingy defense of Wisconsin (12th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 99.1). Moreover, the Badgers are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 14th in OR% at 34.4%. But the Boilermakers rank third at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 76.6%.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Boilermakers won the first game 61-55. Hammons was a top performer in the victory with 24 points, seven rebounds, one assist, one steal, and two blocks.
The Boilermakers look to build on their records of 23-7 Straight Up (SU) and 14-11-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 8-2 ATS. Purdue has been struggling of late. In the last 10 games, Purdue has only averaged 68.9 points per game compared to the 77.5 they’ve averaged on the season. The Boilermakers are an incredibly accurate shooting team from the line with a .741 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Purdue has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 41.6 rebounds per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Purdue, which ranks 33rd at 1.42. Turning to the defensive side, the Purdue defense has been very good, only giving up 64.4 points per game. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Boilermakers, who allow a field goal percentage of only .390.
Across the court, the Badgers head into the game with records of 16-14 ATS and 20-10 SU. The Wisconsin defense has allowed an average of 71.4 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 63.5. Wisconsin’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 5.0 shots from the three-point line per game.
Following the Boilermakers’ latest win over Wisconsin, Purdue is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 4-6 SU. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers, neither team was able to hold the advantage in all three of these categories over their past five meetings against one another.
Predictions: SU Winner – Purdue, ATS Winner – Purdue
Notes
Purdue averages 77.5 points per game this season. Wisconsin is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 63.5 points per game (ranked 15th).
Purdue averages 81.1 points per home game (ranked 52nd). However, Wisconsin has allowed an average of just 62.1 points per away game, ranked fifth this season.
Purdue won its last game by a 19-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, Wisconsin is 3-0. Purdue is 10-0 in blowouts this season.
The Purdue Boilermakers have a defensive rating of 95.0 (ranked third), while the Wisconsin Badgers have an offensive rating of 108.5 (ranked 112th).
Wisconsin has an average field goal percentage of 43.4%. Purdue is a winning 6-3 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Purdue Boilermakers average 21.0 three point attempts per game, and the Wisconsin Badgers attempt 18.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Purdue is 12-5 and Wisconsin is 8-5.
Purdue ranks 33rd in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.42. Wisconsin is ranked lower at 177th with an A/TO of 1.05.
The Purdue Boilermakers are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.6 per game (ranked ninth). The Wisconsin Badgers are outside the top 100 with 35.4 rebounds per game (ranked 223rd).
Wisconsin ranks 112th in offensive rebounds, while Purdue ranks at fourth in defensive rebounds.
On average, Purdue forces a turnover rate of 14.2%. When Wisconsin turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a tremendous 15-5 record.
