Wisconsin (3 – 0) and Michigan State (2 – 0) battle on Saturday at Spartan Stadium, as Big Ten Conference play gets under way this weekend. Both teams enter the game undefeated from non-conference play, renewing a rivalry that has been on hiatus since 2012 when they last met.
Wisconsin and Michigan State have each appeared twice in the Big Ten title game the last four years, but the two have still managed to avoid each other somehow.
The early line reads Michigan State favored by 5 at home, with the over/under set at 42.
Wisconsin:
The Wisconsin Badgers start conference play after three straight home games to start the season with non-conference teams visiting Madison.
Head Coach Paul Chryst enters his second season on the Badger’s sidelines after a 10 – 3 first year, which includes a Holiday Bowl win over USC to complete the season.
Wisconsin started the season with the difficult task of hosting the LSU Tigers at Lambeau Field which, in the end, came down to a 4th quarter field goal with 3 minutes left in the game to decide the winner. LSU took a 14 – 13 lead to the final stanza, but were unable to maintain the lead on the road.
The Badgers followed up their opening weekend win with a smashing of Akron in week 2 by a 54 – 10 result. Accumulating 586 yards in the game, the Badgers were almost perfectly balanced with 294 rushing yards, and 292 passing yards.
Week 3 was a bit of a tougher challenge, although some might not have expected it to come from a Sun Belt team such as Georgia State. The Badgers were 35-point favorites at home, and barely managed to escape with a win by 6 points, 23 – 17. Just minutes in to the fourth quarter, Georgia State took a 17 – 13 lead, and the concern grew among the Camp Randall crowd, but two late scores aided the Badgers to a 3 – 0 record entering this weekend.
It is being reported that Coach Chryst has decided to start freshman QB Alex Hornibrook, after Bart Houston was benched last weekend. Hornibrook led the Badgers to the win, and has apparently earned his stripes.
Michigan State:
Sparty started this year reeling from the 38 – 0 loss in last year’s BCS Playoffs to Alabama, knowing that they were also going to have to replace Connor Cook at QB entering this season. Cook took home the Bowl game MVP in his final collegiate start.
Head Coach Mark Dantonio is in his tenth season with Michigan State, carrying an impressive 89 – 33 record in to this weekend’s home game.
Fifth year senior QB Tyler O’Connor is undoubtedly coming off his biggest win in his career, defeating Notre Dame in South Bend as +7.5 underdogs 36 – 28. The Ohio native went 19 for 26 with 241 yards, while throwing for two scores. The running game eased the transition for O’Connor, who watched his backfield gain 260 yards on 52 carries as a unit.
Running backs Gerald Holmes and LJ Scott provided most of the grunt work, combining for 198 yards on 35 carries with 3 TDs between them as well.
Notes:
Wisconsin is ranked 1st in the Big Ten and third in the country in time of possession through three games, averaging 38:25.
Wisconsin is 3 – 8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Under is 4 – 1 in Badgers last 5 September games.
Michigan State has won 10 of their last 13 games against ranked opponents.
Spartans are 1 – 5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Under is 5 – 2 in Spartans last 7 games overall.
Fun Facts:
Due to realignment in the Big Ten conference, the Badgers and Spartans have not played in four seasons, although you will not hear either head coach saying that they miss it. Coach Dantonio was quoted this week in his interview about the meeting this weekend, and he was more than clear about not missing Wisconsin on the schedule.
Game Prediction:
Despite both quarterbacks being listed as seniors, neither of the two have actually experienced a whole lot of football on the field. These two defenses should be able to remind both QBs that this is life in the Big Ten, and inexperience could cost one of them the game. The announcement that Houston was benched as QB for the Badgers changes the entire dynamic for this game now, so that too will strengthen our play on this total.
With the total being set at 42, it may seem low but we expect a low-scoring game never the less. Take a shot on the total and lean to the under expecting a 20 – 17 type of outcome.
