NBA Preview: The home team has won all eight meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.
#4 Washington Wizards (55-37) at #1 Boston Celtics (59-33), Wednesday 8 p.m. EST.
Line: Celtics -4.5. Total 216.
Series: Series tied 2-2.
The Wizards looked close to unbeatable against Boston at the Verizon Center.
Washington thrashed the Celtics two consecutive games at home by 27 and 19 points. The Wizards used two huge runs to take control of both games. Washington used a 22-0 first-quarter run in Game 3 to break open a 12-12 tie and cruise to an easy win. Then In Game 4, the Wizards ran off a 26-0 run in the third quarter to turn a 5-point deficit into a 21-point lead and coasted to victory.
Boston coach Brad Stevens has some adjustments to make for Game 5. Stevens needs to counter the adjustments Washington coach Scott Brooks made after Game 2. Brooks has been targeting Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas the last two games. He is posting up Thomas underneath the basket with either John Wall or Bradley Beal, who are bigger, stronger players and making Thomas work hard on defense. The end result is that Thomas is having problems stopping Wall and Beal when they post up near the basket.
Brooks is also running multiple players at Thomas when Boston is on offense to get ball the out of his hands. This has worked wonders as Boston’s offense and especially Thomas has struggled mightily the last two games. Thomas averaged 43 points per game in the first two games at Boston compared to 16 points per game in the two games at Washington.
Avery Bradley and Al Horford have seen their production diminish, too. Bradley averaged 16 points per game in Boston compared to 6 points per game in Washington. Horford averaged 18 points per game in Boston while averaging 13.5 points per game in Washington. Boston as a team is averaging 126 points per game at home and 95.5 points per game on the road in this series.
With all of that said, the Wizards have held double-digit leads in both games at Boston. The Celtics rallied in both games to win. Boston won fairly easily in Game 1. However, the Celtics were very lucky to win Game 2. Sure, they won by 10 points, but the game did go into overtime and Washington led late in regulation time.
Can the cure for the Celtics really be as easy as going back to their home court in Boston? One thing in coach Stevens favor is that he has three days to prepare for this game. Boston is 21-5 in their last 26 home games. The home team has won and covered the Vegas spread in all eight games these two teams have played against each other this season. Boston’s margin of victory in their four home wins against the Wizards this year are 8, 9, 10 and 12 points.
On the flip side, The Wizards margin of victory over Boston in their four homes games are 15, 19, 25 and 27 points. The Wizards are 30-5 in their last 35 home games against all-comers this season. The Wizards have not been a good road team all year.
The Celtics were able to get Thomas the ball in some space in the first half of Game 4. Thomas had 17 points at the half. However, Washington got after him harder in the third quarter as Thomas had just 2 points in the second half. Thomas had 6 turnovers in Game 4. He also complained at the postgame press conference that Washington players were grabbing him and holding him and making contact with him a lot in Game 4 with no fouls being called.
I like the Celtics to bounce back in Game 5 and hold serve. The Celtics and Thomas should get more calls from the zebras (referees) than they did at the Verizon Center. Thomas should have a much better game than he did in Games 3 and 4 in Washington. However, I think Washington wins Games 6 and 7.
I am just 2-2 in my last 4 picks, so just in case I am cooling off, I will drop the bet to half a unit.
My postseason record: 14-5 (+$810).
My pick:
Boston Celtics -4.5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).
Good luck.
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