For the first time ever, the United States has made it to a World Baseball Classic final. While that might surprise you, remember that we’ve only had four World Baseball Classics. Still, baseball was invented in the United States and given the caliber of talent, Americans have expected more. Their opponent will be Puerto Rico, the team that finished as the runner-up in 2013 to the Dominican Republic. They’ve played very well to this point. Puerto Rico has yet to lose a game, which includes a win over the United States in the second round. This time, the game will be played at Dodger Stadium, so the United States will have a home-field advantage. We’ll see the same pitchers as we saw in that matchup as Marcus Stroman will start for the Americans while Seth Lugo will go for Puerto Rico.
World Baseball Classic Game Details
Date: Wednesday March 21, 2017
Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV: MLB Network
Odds: USA -130
Total: 7.5
Why United States Might Win…
They are on a roll right now. The United States beat Japan on Tuesday – a team that might have the best pitching staff of the tournament. The pitching that they’ll face on Wednesday won’t be nearly as challenging. More importantly, their starter should be much better.
Yes, Stroman did struggle in the early parts of his first meeting with Puerto Rico but remember that he settled down after that. He gave up four runs on six hits to start the game but then he didn’t give up anything else in the following 4.2 innings of work. That was closer to what he did against the Dominican Republic when he shut them out over four innings.
The United States has played – and won – a number of tight games and has had momentum on their side recently. Now they’ll be at home, playing in front of a raucous audience that should put them over the top for their first World Baseball Classic.
Why Puerto Rico Might Win…
Because they haven’t lost yet. They are 7-0 and playing like a team that’s on a mission. Remember in 2013, they lost in the World Baseball Classic Championship Game. Their mission has been to get back there and take it one step further. So far, so good.
This is a young team built around guys like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez, but they are supported by a stellar veteran cast including Yadier Molina and Carlos Beltran. They’ve not only won all seven of their games, they’ve blown out their opponents by a combined score of 55-18. Taking a look at the Americans, they are just 5-2 in the tournament and have had only one easy win. Aside from smoking Canada, the United States has grinded out its other four wins by a combined seven runs. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s dominating.
Lugo gets the ball on Wednesday and he’s been awesome so far. The Mets prospect shutdown a stacked Venezuela team last time out, going 5.1 innings while giving up just one hit. Lugo did struggle against the Americans a little bit (three runs and two home runs in 5.2 innings of work) but Stroman was worse. The Puerto Rican side batted him around as he gave up four runs on six straight hits to start the game.
Outlook
Before we get to the pick, there has been a little bit of chatter about the rules in the World Baseball Classic in terms of pitcher usage. The American went deep into their bullpen last night as Tanner Roark only lasted four innings. Manager Jim Leyland used Nate Jones, Andrew Miller, Sam Dyson, Mark Melancon, Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson last night. However, the Championship Round rules state that those pitchers would need a day off if any of them threw at least 30 pitches. None of them did, so they are all available.
Yesterday, we went against the grain with our picks as we took the United States to beat Japan. They opened up as an underdog and later cashed as a favorite (the line moved significantly in their favor) but we’re going to go against the grain one more time. Yes, the United States is at home. Yes, they seem to have an edge on the mound with Stroman going versus Lugo. However, Puerto Rico is playing with a lot of swagger and their wins and performance has been more impressive than the United States. Puerto Rico stunned the Americans in the second round when Correa’s home run sent shock waves through the tournament and I’ll be looking for another upset like that tonight. Take Puerto Rico as a slight dog to cash in and win on American soil.
Pick: Puerto Rico +110
The 2017 World Baseball Classic is winding down but the MLB season is rapidly approaching. If you’re looking at World Series futures, click here to bet on MLB at BetDSI!
