Game one of this much anticipated World Series will the best hitting team in baseball (Houston Astros) against the best pitching team in baseball (Los Angeles Dodgers). While the Dodgers are pretty well-rested and will get Corey Seager back from the disabled list, the Astros regained momentum after winning game seven against the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Dallas Keuchel will face off against Clayton Kershaw in game one – let’s look at how this game will likely pan out.
Why The Astros Might Win
The Astros have all the momentum in the world after their offense stormed back in games six and seven for a come-from-behind series win against the Yankees. During the regular season, Keuchel was 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 0.38:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.93 HR/9 rate. Keuchel held opponents to a .218/.284/.336 slash line with a .257 BABIP. However, Keuchel has been worse on the road this season, posting a 3.53 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .245/.311/.390. Game one will be Keuchel’s first start against the Dodgers this year. Furthermore, game one will also be the first time that Keuchel faces the majority of the Dodgers’ lineup, which should surely work to his advantage. He’s only faced Logan Forsythe more than eight times, with Forsythe slashing .350/.350/.450 in 20 AB. Whenever a pitcher faces a batter for the first time, it usually works more in the pitcher’s favor. The Astros have all the momentum in the world and if Keuchel can give them six or seven solid innings, the Astros should walk away from game one with a win.
Why The Dodgers Might Win
Can I say two words? Clayton Kershaw. In typical Kershaw fashion, he was 18-4 during the regular season with a 2.31 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 0.15:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.18 HR/9 rate. Kershaw has held opponents to a .212/.246/.357 slash line. Kershaw’s home-away splits were pretty much even this year, so don’t expect him to performance worse at home or on the road. Just like Keuchel, game one will be Kershaw’s first start against the Astros this year. While Keuchel has never faced the majority of the Dodgers’ hitters at all, Kershaw has faced some of the Astros’ hitters before. Here’s how Kershaw fared against them:
- Cameron Maybin .133/.211/.133 with 0 HR, 3 BB, and 8 K in 30 AB
- Carlos Beltran .259/.323/.370 with 0 HR, 3 BB, and 9 K in 27 AB
- Jose Altuve .400/.400/.667 with 4 2B, 0 HR, 0 BB, and 4 K in 15 AB
- Evan Gattis .250/.308/.333 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 0 K in 12 AB
What’s alarming for the Astros but good news for the Dodgers is that in 100 AB against Kershaw as a team, the Astros have yet to hit a home run. The Dodgers have been on-point all postseason. If Kershaw can give the Dodgers six or seven solid innings while limiting Houston’s offense to under two runs, the Dodgers’ unhittable bullpen should handle the rest.
Outlook
We saw this betting line open up at Dodgers -160 and not surprisingly, the line has climbed up to -170 at this point. The reality is that Kershaw is a big brand name and is going to attract the action. Beyond that, the Dodgers have been off and resting while the Astros had to extend themselves the full seven games, so that’s likely to be a factor in the minds of bettors. The total opened at 7 and still currently sits at seven.
While it’s always tough to bet against Kershaw, the Astros have a lot of momentum going into game one of the World Series. And while it is less rest for them, remember that in baseball, teams aren’t used to more than one days’ rest.
If the Astros’ offense has indeed woken up, game one might turn into a nightmare scenario, even with Kershaw on the mound. While Kershaw is the better pitcher, the fact that none of the Dodgers’ best hitters have faced Keuchel before makes game one a cause for concern. At +155 odds to win, I’d have to go with the Astros from a value perspective while riding their momentum from their huge comeback win against the Yankees.
Pick: Astros +155
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