The 2017 World Series will consist of two 100-plus-win teams for the first time since 1970. The Houston Astros, after coming back from a 3-2 deficit to the New York Yankees in the ALCS, will look to win the franchise’s first championship since they joined the MLB in 1962. The Los Angeles Dodgers, a historic franchise, are finally back in the World Series after 29 years. Let’s look at how these two elite teams will fare in the World Series.
Why The Houston Astros Might Win The Series
The Astros offense has been the best in all of baseball this year – most runs scored, highest OPS, AVG, OBP, SLG, and most productive outs. A huge part of the Astros’ offensive success has been on the shoulders of Jose Altuve, who, in my opinion, should be named the AL MVP – you could make a decent argument for Aaron Judge as well. After struggling through the first five games of the ALCS, the Astros’ offense woke up and put away the Yankees for good.
Since coming over from the Detroit Tigers, Justin Verlander has proved that he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league and a likely future Hall of Famer. Since being acquired by the Astros, Verlander (including the postseason) has gone 8-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 59 K in 51.2 IP. In his past 10 postseason starts, Verlander has posted a sparking 1.77 ERA. He basically saved the Astros’ season with seven brilliant innings in their must-win game six. In elimination games, Verlander has upped his scoreless streak to 24 innings, tying the MLB record with Madison Bumgarner. The Astros’ starting rotation has been solid – they really needed to be since their bullpen has been shaky.
One blip with the Astros’ postseason run has been their bullpen. Other than closer Ken Giles and Lance McCullers, the Astros’ bullpen has been a mess, albeit in a small sample size. The bullpen will need to turn things around as they’re well aware of how unhittable the Dodgers’ bullpen has been.
With Hurricane Harvey ravaging the city of Houston, nothing would be sweeter than the team winning its first World Series in franchise history.
Why The Dodgers Might Win The Series
After finishing with the best record in the MLB, the Dodgers haven’t missed a beat this postseason, only losing one game on route to their first World Series appearance since 1988, when they won it all. The Dodgers’ biggest strength this postseason has arguably been their bullpen, with no starters being required to be used in relief thus far. Collectively, the Dodgers’ bullpen has allowed only four runs in 28.2 IP while recording 32 K, 2 BB, and only a .125 AVG.
The Dodgers’ offense has also been on fire, with Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, and Yasiel Puig leading the way. All three individuals have posted playoff OPS figures above 1.000, with Turner being the guy to really watch out for. In Turner’s postseason career, he’s 14-20 with runners in scoring position. Additionally, his 1.113 postseason OPS trails only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
It always feels like we’re missing something when talking about the Dodgers without mentioning Clayton Kershaw. While Kershaw hasn’t been as good as his regular season numbers, he’s been dependable. With a bit of pressure off his shoulders having now made it to the World Series, he should be in for a vintage Kershaw performance. The rest of the Dodgers’ starters haven’t been too shabby either.
The Dodgers have home-field advantage, posted the best record in the MLB, and seemingly have no real flaws. If they’re able to execute, they should add another World Series Championship their historic franchise.
Outlook
This World Series matchup will pit a historically strong pitching staff (Dodgers) against an equally good lineup (Astros). The Astros’ offensive production, based on wRC+, was 21% better than average compared to MLB teams this year and was ranked in the 99.8th percentile all time – to put it another way, only 0.2% of offensive units have been more prolific in MLB history. On the other hand, the Dodgers’ run prevention, based on ERA- and DEF, ranked in the 91.2nd percentile in league history. However, looking at historical results, it’s evident that great hitting teams tend to beat great pitching teams. With what’s happened to the city of Houston this year, I’m taking the Astros to win the World Series at underdog odds.
Pick: Astros +145
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