The St. John’s Red Storm (10-12, 0-10 Big East) will try to snap their 10-game losing streak when they meet the No. 6 Xavier Musketeers (19-3, 7-2 Big East) at Carnesecca Arena. The game can be seen on CBS Sports Network at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 30, 2018.
Xavier is a 6-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 152.5 points.
Xavier Musketeers at St. John’s Red Storm Free Prediction
The last time the Musketeers played, they thoroughly outplayed the Marquette Golden Eagles, 89-70. The Musketeers had a turnover percentage of 10.1 (better than their season average of 15.6), while the Golden Eagles had a free throw rate of 0.136 (below their season average of 0.240). Xavier was led by Trevon Bluiett, who recorded 13 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
The Red Storm got blown out by the Butler Bulldogs in their last outing, 70-45. Butler’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over St. John’s. The Bulldogs had a rate of 0.255 (above their season average of 0.203), while the Red Storm posted a mark of 0.145 (below their season average of 0.222). Tariq Owens had a solid performance for St. John’s, leading the team in scoring with 13 points on 6-for-8 shooting.
St. John’s should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. St. John’s ranks 25th in the nation at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.0 percent), while Xavier forces the 23rd-fewest turnovers (16.2 percent). Furthermore, the Musketeers, who rank 11th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.307), could earn plenty of trips to the line against the Red Storm, who rank 253rd in opponents’ FTA rate (0.257).
Xavier heads into the contest with records of 19-3 straight up (SU) and 15-7 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Musketeers games, with 11 overs compared to 10 unders.
Meanwhile, St. John’s is 10-12 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. Games including the Red Storm have typically finished under the projected point total (61.1 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Justin Simon scored a game-high 28 points in the first game, in which the Red Storm lost 88-82 but covered as 11.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 170 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 155 points. The Musketeers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.0 vs. 12.1) and had a much better free throw rate (0.211 vs. 0.109).
Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John’s Red Storm Free Pick
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Xavier, ATS Winner – Xavier, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Xavier is 5-3 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 4 unders.
St. John’s is 4-4-1 ATS at home with 5 unders and 2 overs.
Xavier ranks 31st in rebounds allowed per game (31.5) while St. John’s ranks 271st (40.3).
The Musketeers rank 10th in assists per game (17.7) while the Red Storm rank 173rd (13.0).
St. John’s ranks ninth in steals per game (9.0) while Xavier ranks 148th in steals allowed per game (6.9).
The Red Storm rank 10th in blocks per game (6.0) while the Musketeers rank 148th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
St. John’s ranks 148th in three pointers attempted per game (21.9) while Xavier ranks 256th in three pointers allowed per game (25.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Xavier is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
St. John’s is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Musketeers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, down from 11.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Red Storm have scored an average of 70.0 points per game (2.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 79.4 points per game (8.6 above their season average).
